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Financial development, sectoral reallocation, and volatility: International evidence

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  • Manganelli, Simone
  • Popov, Alexander

Abstract

This paper studies how financial development affects the volatility of GDP growth through the channel of sectoral reallocation. For 28 OECD countries over the period 1970–2007, we construct a benchmark industrial portfolio that minimizes the economy's long-term volatility for a given level of long-term labor productivity growth. We find that financial development substantially increases the speed with which the observed industrial composition of output converges toward the benchmark. To overcome endogeneity concerns, we exploit sectoral sensitivities to financial deepening and exogenous liberalization events.

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  • Manganelli, Simone & Popov, Alexander, 2015. "Financial development, sectoral reallocation, and volatility: International evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 323-337.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:96:y:2015:i:2:p:323-337
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.03.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Loayza,Norman V. & Ouazad,Amine & Ranciere,Romain, 2017. "Financial development, growth, and crisis: is there a trade-off ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8237, The World Bank.
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    3. Zouaoui, Haykel & Mazioud, Manel & Ellouz, Nidhal Ziedi, 2018. "A semi-parametric panel data analysis on financial development-economic volatility nexus in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 50-55.
    4. Vitor Castro & Boris Fisera, 2022. "Determinants of the Duration of Economic Recoveries: The Role of ´Too Much Finance´," Working Papers IES 2022/33, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2022.
    5. Tongurai, Jittima & Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2018. "The impact of the banking sector on economic structure and growth," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 193-207.
    6. Xue, Wen-Jun, 2020. "Financial sector development and growth volatility: An international study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 67-88.
    7. Becker, Chris & Ossandon Busch, Matias & Tonzer, Lena, 2021. "Macroprudential policy and intra-group dynamics: The effects of reserve requirements in Brazil," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Summaira Malik & Ali Abbas & Malik Shahzad Shabbir & Carlos Samuel Ramos-Meza, 2024. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Foreign Direct Investment, and Real Effective Exchange Rate Nexus Among Asian Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 5466-5479, June.
    9. Chima Igwe-Kalu & Barnabas Olusegun Obasaju, 2020. "Output Volatility in Nigeria: Does Financial Development Absorb Trade-Led Shocks?," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 10(2), pages 66-78.
    10. Meriem Sebai & Omar Talbi & Hella Guerchi Mehri, 2024. "On the Banking Deepening and Economic Volatility Nexus in Emerging Countries: Evidence from a GMM Panel-VAR Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(5), pages 430-442, May.
    11. Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Montañez-Enríquez, Ricardo & Ossandon Busch, Matias & Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Sánchez-Martínez, Manuel, 2022. "Stress-ridden finance and growth losses: Does financial development break the link?," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    12. Karakaya, Neslihan & Michalski, Tomasz K. & Örs, Evren, 2022. "Banking integration and growth: Role of banks' previous industry exposure," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    13. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen & Zhiwei Xu, 2018. "Financial Development and Long-Run Volatility Trends," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 221-251, April.
    14. Hejie Zhang & Huiming Lv & Shenghau Lin, 2021. "Financial Development, Saving Rates, and International Economic Volatility: A Simple Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-20, August.
    15. Littke, Helge C. N., 2018. "Channeling the Iron Ore Super-Cycle: The role of regional bank branch networks in emerging markets," IWH Discussion Papers 11/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    16. Yong Ma & Ke Song, 2018. "Financial Development And Macroeconomic Volatility," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 205-225, July.
    17. Abdulaziz H. Algaeed, 2022. "Government Spending Volatility and Real Economic Growth: Evidence From a Major Oil Producing Country, Saudi Arabia, 1970 to 2018," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    18. Su-Yin Cheng & Han Hou, 2022. "Innovation, financial development, and growth: evidences from industrial and emerging countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1629-1653, August.
    19. Chor Foon Tang & Salah Abosedra, 2020. "Does Financial Development Moderate the Effects on Growth Volatility? The Experience of Malaysia," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(4), pages 361-381, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial development; Volatility; Growth; Diversification; Mean-variance efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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