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Capital controls and recovery from the financial crisis of the 1930s

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  • Mitchener, Kris James
  • Wandschneider, Kirsten

Abstract

We examine the first widespread use of capital controls in response to a global or regional financial crisis. In particular, we analyze whether capital controls mitigated capital flight in the 1930s and assess their causal effects on macroeconomic recovery from the Great Depression. We find evidence that they stemmed gold outflows in the year following their imposition; however, time-shifted, difference-in-differences (DD) estimates of industrial production, prices, and exports suggest that capital controls did not accelerate macroeconomic recovery relative to countries that went off gold and floated. Countries imposing capital controls also appear to perform similar to the gold bloc countries once the latter group of countries finally abandoned gold. Time series analysis suggests that countries imposing capital controls refrained from fully utilizing their newly acquired monetary policy autonomy.

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  • Mitchener, Kris James & Wandschneider, Kirsten, 2015. "Capital controls and recovery from the financial crisis of the 1930s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 188-201.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:95:y:2015:i:2:p:188-201
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.11.011
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    2. Vitor Castro & Boris Fisera, 2022. "Determinants of the Duration of Economic Recoveries: The Role of ´Too Much Finance´," Working Papers IES 2022/33, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2022.
    3. Jin, Yuying & Luo, Mingjin & Wan, Chao, 2018. "Financial constraints, macro-financing environment and post-crisis recovery of firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 54-67.
    4. Jalil, Andrew J. & Rua, Gisela, 2016. "Inflation expectations and recovery in spring 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 26-50.
    5. Athanasios Tsagkanos & Konstantinos Gkillas & Christoforos Konstantatos & Christos Floros, 2021. "Does Trading Volume Drive Systemic Banks’ Stock Return Volatility? Lessons from the Greek Banking System," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-13, April.
    6. Fisera, Boris, 2024. "Exchange rates and the speed of economic recovery: The role of financial development," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    7. Raphaël Hekimian & David Le Bris, 2016. "US Crashes of 2008 and 1929 How did the French market react? An empirical study," Working Papers hal-04141589, HAL.
    8. Bechlioulis, Alexandros & Economidou, Claire & Karamanis, Dimitrios & Konstantios, Dimitrios, 2023. "How important are capital controls in shaping innovation activity?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    9. Berbenni, Enrico, 2021. "External devaluation and trade balance in 1930s Italy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 93-107.
    10. Sabaté, Marcela & Fillat, Carmen & Escario, Regina, 2019. "Budget deficits and money creation: Exploring their relation before Bretton Woods," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 38-56.
    11. Martin Ellison & Sang Seok Lee & Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, 2020. "The Ends of 30 Big Depressions," Economics Series Working Papers 896, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Albers, Thilo Nils Hendrik, 2018. "The prelude and global impact of the Great Depression: Evidence from a new macroeconomic dataset," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 150-163.
    13. Mingjin Luo & Shenqguan Wang, 2023. "Financialization and sluggish recovery of firms' investment: Global evidence from the 2007–2008 financial crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 344-363, December.
    14. Gkillas (Gillas), Konstantinos & Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2016. "The risk in capital controls," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 261-266.
    15. Raphael Hekimian & David Le Bris, 2016. "US Crashes of 2008 and 1929 How did the French market react? An empirical study," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-21, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    16. Samitas, Aristeidis & Polyzos, Stathis, 2016. "Freeing Greece from capital controls: Were the restrictions enforced in time?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 196-213.
    17. Huang, Xun & Zhang, Chengzhao, 2024. "What explains the recovery speed of financial markets from banking crises?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    18. Hu, Jiafei & Yuan, Haishan, 2021. "Interest arbitrage under capital controls: Evidence from reported entrepôt trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital controls; Financial crises; Great Depression; Interwar gold standard;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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