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Self-enforcing trade policy and exchange rate adjustment

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  • Auray, Stéphane
  • Devereux, Michael B.
  • Eyquem, Aurélien

Abstract

We explore the cyclical pattern of trade protection in a simple New Keynesian open economy macro model. Tariff rates are determined endogenously in a sustainable equilibrium of a two country trade policy game. The incentive to levy tariffs is greater when the exchange rate is floating, since a fixed exchange rate removes the ability to manipulate the terms of trade. If price are fully flexible, we find that protectionism is basically a-cyclical. By contrast, with pre-set prices, tariffs respond to both monetary and productivity shocks. But the degree of protection may be pro-cyclical or counter-cyclical, depending on the pattern of shocks and parameter values.

Suggested Citation

  • Auray, Stéphane & Devereux, Michael B. & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2022. "Self-enforcing trade policy and exchange rate adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:134:y:2022:i:c:s002219962100132x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103552
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    Cited by:

    1. Grijalva, Diego F. & Uribe-Terán, Carlos & Gachet, Iván, 2024. "The Contractionary Effects of Protectionist Trade Policy in a Dollarized Economy," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13358, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Dmitry Matveev & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2024. "Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1185-1211, September.
    3. Masashige Hamano & Francesco Pappadà & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2023. "Optimal Monetary Policy, Tariff Shocks and Exporter Dynamics," Working Papers 2309, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Protectionism; Business cycle; Exchange rate regime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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