IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/buspol/v12y2010i2n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real Exchange Rates and Trade Protectionism

Author

Listed:
  • Oatley Thomas

    (University of North Carolina)

Abstract

Real exchange rate movements are robustly related to the rise and fall of trade protectionism. I demonstrate this by presenting a theoretical model that incorporates the real exchange rate into a standard factor proportions model of trade policy preferences. The model demonstrates why some firms' trade policy preferences, and thus total demands for protectionism, change in response to real exchange rate movements. I evaluate the model with data on antidumping investigations in six industrialized countries between the late 1970s and 2004. The exercise suggests that the real exchange rate hypothesis offers a more compelling explanation for protectionist waves than the business cycle hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Oatley Thomas, 2010. "Real Exchange Rates and Trade Protectionism," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:buspol:v:12:y:2010:i:2:n:1
    DOI: 10.2202/1469-3569.1309
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/1469-3569.1309
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/1469-3569.1309?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Irwin, Douglas A., 2010. "The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 871-897, December.
    2. Michael M. Knetter & Thomas J. Prusa, 2021. "Macroeconomic factors and antidumping filings: evidence from four countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Thomas J Prusa (ed.), Economic Effects of Antidumping, chapter 8, pages 153-169, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Bohara, Alok K & Kaempfer, William H, 1991. "A Test of Tariff Endogeneity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 952-960, September.
    4. Coughlin, Cletus C & Terza, Joseph V & Khalifah, Noor Aini, 1989. "The Determinants of Escape Clause Petitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 341-347, May.
    5. Gunnar Niels & Joseph Francois, 2006. "Business Cycles, the Exchange Rate, and Demand for Antidumping Protection in Mexico," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 388-399, August.
    6. Douglas A. Irwin, 2005. "The Rise of US Anti‐dumping Activity in Historical Perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 651-668, May.
    7. Salvatore,Dominick (ed.), 1993. "Protectionism and World Welfare," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521424899, October.
    8. Evenett Simon J, 2009. "What Can Be Learned From Crisis-Era Protectionism? An Initial Assessment," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-28, November.
    9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    10. Corden, W. Max., 1997. "Trade Policy and Economic Welfare," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780198775348.
    11. Frieden, Jeffry A., 1997. "Monetary Populism in Nineteenth-Century America: An Open Economy Interpretation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 367-395, June.
    12. Michael P. Leidy, 1997. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Pressures for Protection under Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Laws: Empirical Evidence from the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 132-144, March.
    13. Evenett, Simon J., 2009. "What Can Be Learned From Crisis-Era Protectionism? An Initial Assessment," Business and Politics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 1-26, October.
    14. Cassing, James & McKeown, Timothy J. & Ochs, Jack, 1986. "The Political Economy of the Tariff Cycle," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(3), pages 843-862, September.
    15. Takacs, Wendy E, 1981. "Pressures for Protectionism: An Empirical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(4), pages 687-693, October.
    16. Salvatore,Dominick (ed.), 1993. "Protectionism and World Welfare," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521414555, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chin, Lee & Che Rusli, AK, 2015. "The Determinants of Non-Tariff Barriers: The Role of WTO Membership," MPRA Paper 96864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Aleksandra ?or?evi? Zori?, 2019. "The importance of exchange rate stability for export growth," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9911949, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    3. Peter Nuhu & Dramani Bukari, 2021. "An analysis of export, import and exchange rate oscillation in Ghana," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 301-327, September.
    4. Auray, Stéphane & Devereux, Michael B. & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2022. "Self-enforcing trade policy and exchange rate adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Stéphane Auray & Michael B. Devereux & Aurélien Eyquem, 2024. "The Demand for Trade Protection over the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 865-898, June.
    6. Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb, 2016. "Growth, Real Exchange Rates and Trade Protectionism since the Financial Crisis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 1050-1080, November.
    7. Alessandro Nicita, 2013. "Exchange rates, international trade and trade policies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 135-136, pages 47-61.
    8. J. Bradford Jensen & Dennis P. Quinn & Stephen Weymouth, 2014. "The Influences Of Foreign Direct Investments, Intrafirm Trading, And Currency Undervaluation On U.S. Firm Trade Disputes," Working Papers 14-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb, 2016. "Growth, Real Exchange Rates and Trade Protectionism since the Financial Crisis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 1050-1080, November.
    2. Nelson, Douglas, 2006. "The political economy of antidumping: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 554-590, September.
    3. Kokko, Ari & Gustavsson Tingvall, Patrik & Videnord, Josefin, 2017. "Which Antidumping Cases Reach the WTO?," Ratio Working Papers 286, The Ratio Institute.
    4. Yi Liu & Ning Zhang, 2015. "Sustainability of Trade Liberalization and Antidumping: Evidence from Mexico’s Trade Liberalization toward China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-20, August.
    5. Lake, James & Linask, Maia K., 2016. "Could tariffs be pro-cyclical?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 124-146.
    6. Marcel Vaillant & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2011. "Micro and Macro Determinants of trade temporary barriers: the Brazilian case over the last two decades," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0711, Department of Economics - dECON.
    7. Aggarwal, Aradhna, 2004. "Macro Economic Determinants of Antidumping: A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1043-1057, June.
    8. Koichi Kagitani & Yasunobu Tomoda, 2022. "Foreign macroeconomic conditions and antidumping actions: evidence from the USA," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 863-883, October.
    9. Aradhna Aggarwal, 2003. "Patterns and determinants of anti-dumping: A worldwide perspective," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 113, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    10. Aksel Erbahar & Yuan Zi, 2015. "Cascading Trade Protection: Theory and Evidence from the U.S," CTEI Working Papers series 04-2015, Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute.
    11. Nicholas Crafts & Peter Fearon, 2010. "Lessons from the 1930s Great Depression," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 285-317, Autumn.
    12. Enrico Colombatto, 2000. "An Explanation of the Dynamics of Protectionism," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 279-293, July.
    13. Ileana Raquel Jalile, 2022. "Protectionism and business cycles. Evidence from import barriers in Argentina," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4570, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    14. Ning Meng & Chris Milner & Huasheng Song, 2016. "Differences in the determinants and targeting of antidumping: China and India compared," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(43), pages 4083-4097, September.
    15. Alper Yilmaz, 2022. "Intra-BRICS Trade: A Panel Data Analysis with Structural Breaks," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 653-687, December.
    16. Groppo, Valeria & Piermartini, Roberta, 2014. "Trade policy uncertainty and the WTO," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2014-23, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    17. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h2q4n8g45 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ileana Raquel Jalile, 2020. "Protectionism, competitiveness and business cycles: The Argentinean case," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4359, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    19. Patrick Messerlin, 2009. "The world trade regime, the WTO and large scale crises: Perspectives after the Pittsburg G20 Summit," Post-Print hal-01053280, HAL.
    20. Erbahar, Aksel & Zi, Yuan, 2017. "Cascading trade protection: Evidence from the US," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 274-299.
    21. Witold J. Henisz & Edward D. Mansfield, 2015. "Votes and Vetoes: The Political Determinants of Commercial Openness," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Edward D Mansfield (ed.), THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE, chapter 8, pages 145-167, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:buspol:v:12:y:2010:i:2:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.