IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/indorg/v87y2023ics016771872200090x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A partial identification framework for dynamic games

Author

Listed:
  • Abito, Jose Miguel
  • Chen, Cuicui

Abstract

Empirical work on strategic interactions is often subject to the critique that equilibrium selection assumptions drive the results. We develop a framework for partially identifying parameters of dynamic games without equilibrium selection assumptions. Our framework relies on incentive compatibility constraints that incorporate game theoretical results on equilibrium payoff sets to bound the unknown continuation payoffs. We apply this framework to identify cost parameters in three dynamic games where collusion is a potential outcome. The identified set demonstrates the ease of sustaining collusion with patient firms, in low demand and when monitoring is perfect, and can also be used to detect collusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Abito, Jose Miguel & Chen, Cuicui, 2023. "A partial identification framework for dynamic games," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:87:y:2023:i:c:s016771872200090x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102915
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016771872200090X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102915?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sugaya, Takuo & Wolitzky, Alexander, 2017. "Bounding equilibrium payoffs in repeated games with private monitoring," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), May.
    2. Yuliy Sannikov & Andrzej Skrzypacz, 2007. "Impossibility of Collusion under Imperfect Monitoring with Flexible Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1794-1823, December.
    3. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, September.
    4. Green, Edward J & Porter, Robert H, 1984. "Noncooperative Collusion under Imperfect Price Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 87-100, January.
    5. , & ,, 2010. "A theory of regular Markov perfect equilibria in dynamic stochastic games: genericity, stability, and purification," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 5(3), September.
    6. Ulrich Doraszelski & Mark Satterthwaite, 2010. "Computable Markov‐perfect industry dynamics," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 41(2), pages 215-243, June.
    7. Joseph E. Harrington & Andrzej Skrzypacz, 2011. "Private Monitoring and Communication in Cartels: Explaining Recent Collusive Practices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2425-2449, October.
    8. Hörner, Johannes & Takahashi, Satoru & Vieille, Nicolas, 2014. "On the limit perfect public equilibrium payoff set in repeated and stochastic games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 70-83.
    9. Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile, 2014. "Identification in Differentiated Products Markets Using Market Level Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1749-1797, September.
    10. Jose Miguel Abito & Cuicui Chen, 2021. "How much can we identify from repeated games?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1212-1222.
    11. Kalouptsidi, Myrto & Scott, Paul T. & Souza-Rodrigues, Eduardo, 2017. "On the non-identification of counterfactuals in dynamic discrete games," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 362-371.
    12. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 2008. "Efficiency and Observability with Long-Run and Short-Run Players," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Drew Fudenberg & David K Levine (ed.), A Long-Run Collaboration On Long-Run Games, chapter 13, pages 275-307, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Drew Fudenberg & David Levine & Eric Maskin, 2008. "The Folk Theorem With Imperfect Public Information," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Drew Fudenberg & David K Levine (ed.), A Long-Run Collaboration On Long-Run Games, chapter 12, pages 231-273, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. de Roos, Nicolas, 2004. "A model of collusion timing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 351-387, March.
    15. Nathan H. Miller & Matthew C. Weinberg, 2017. "Understanding the Price Effects of the MillerCoors Joint Venture," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85(6), pages 1763-1791, November.
    16. Drew Fudenberg & Eric Maskin, 2008. "The Folk Theorem In Repeated Games With Discounting Or With Incomplete Information," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Drew Fudenberg & David K Levine (ed.), A Long-Run Collaboration On Long-Run Games, chapter 11, pages 209-230, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Yamamoto, Yuichi, 2019. "Stochastic games with hidden states," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), July.
    18. Bresnahan, Timothy F., 1982. "The oligopoly solution concept is identified," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 87-92.
    19. Aoyagi, Masaki & Fréchette, Guillaume, 2009. "Collusion as public monitoring becomes noisy: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 1135-1165, May.
    20. Nathan H. Miller & Gloria Sheu & Matthew C. Weinberg, 2021. "Oligopolistic Price Leadership and Mergers: The United States Beer Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(10), pages 3123-3159, October.
    21. Ariel Pakes & Michael Ostrovsky & Steven Berry, 2007. "Simple estimators for the parameters of discrete dynamic games (with entry/exit examples)," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(2), pages 373-399, June.
    22. Rotemberg, Julio J & Saloner, Garth, 1986. "A Supergame-Theoretic Model of Price Wars during Booms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 390-407, June.
    23. C. Lanier Benkard, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 581-611.
    24. Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, 2001. "Markov Perfect Equilibrium: I. Observable Actions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 191-219, October.
    25. Mitsuru Igami & Takuo Sugaya, 2022. "Measuring the Incentive to Collude: The Vitamin Cartels, 1990–99," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1460-1494.
    26. Joseph E. Harrington Jr. & Andrzej Skrzypacz, 2007. "Collusion under monitoring of sales," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(2), pages 314-331, June.
    27. Elie Tamer, 2003. "Incomplete Simultaneous Discrete Response Model with Multiple Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(1), pages 147-165.
    28. Michihiro Kandori, 1992. "The Use of Information in Repeated Games with Imperfect Monitoring," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(3), pages 581-593.
    29. Lee, Byung Soo & Stewart, Colin, 2016. "Identification of payoffs in repeated games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 82-88.
    30. Myrto Kalouptsidi & Paul T. Scott & Eduardo Souza‐Rodrigues, 2021. "Identification of counterfactuals in dynamic discrete choice models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 351-403, May.
    31. Stephen P. Ryan, 2012. "The Costs of Environmental Regulation in a Concentrated Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 1019-1061, May.
    32. Dilip Abreu & Benjamin Brooks & Yuliy Sannikov, 2020. "Algorithms for Stochastic Games With Perfect Monitoring," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1661-1695, July.
    33. Volker Nocke, 2007. "Collusion and dynamic (under-) investment in quality," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(1), pages 227-249, March.
    34. Nevo, Aviv, 1998. "Identification of the oligopoly solution concept in a differentiated-products industry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 391-395, June.
    35. Stahl, Dale II, 1991. "The graph of Prisoners' Dilemma supergame payoffs as a function of the discount factor," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 368-384, August.
    36. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Robert J. Town, 1997. "Dynamic Equilibrium in the Hospital Industry," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 45-74, March.
    37. Sugaya, Takuo & Wolitzky, Alexander, 2018. "Bounding payoffs in repeated games with private monitoring: n-player games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 58-87.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Victor Aguirregabiria & Margaret Slade, 2017. "Empirical models of firms and industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1445-1488, December.
    2. Ulrich Doraszelski & Mark Satterthwaite, 2010. "Computable Markov‐perfect industry dynamics," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 41(2), pages 215-243, June.
    3. Adam Rosen, 2007. "Identification and estimation of firms' marginal cost functions with incomplete knowledge of strategic behavior," CeMMAP working papers CWP03/07, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Steven T Berry & Giovanni Compiani, 2023. "An Instrumental Variable Approach to Dynamic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(4), pages 1724-1758.
    5. C. Lanier Benkard & Przemyslaw Jeziorski & Gabriel Y. Weintraub, 2013. "Oblivious Equilibrium for Concentrated Industries," NBER Working Papers 19307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hörner, Johannes & Takahashi, Satoru, 2016. "How fast do equilibrium payoff sets converge in repeated games?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 332-359.
    7. Jehiel, Philippe & Samuelson, Larry, 2023. "The analogical foundations of cooperation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    8. Osório-Costa, António M., 2009. "Efficiency Gains in Repeated Games at Random Moments in Time," MPRA Paper 13105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Victor Aguirregabiria & Gustavo Vicentini, 2006. "Dynamic Spatial Competition Between Multi-Store Firms," Working Papers tecipa-253, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    10. Taisuke Otsu & Martin Pesendorfer, 2021. "Equilibrium multiplicity in dynamic games: testing and estimation," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 618, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    11. , & ,, 2010. "A theory of regular Markov perfect equilibria in dynamic stochastic games: genericity, stability, and purification," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 5(3), September.
    12. C. Lanier Benkard & Przemyslaw Jeziorski & Gabriel Y. Weintraub, 2015. "Oblivious equilibrium for concentrated industries," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(4), pages 671-708, October.
    13. Linli Xu & Jorge M. Silva-Risso & Kenneth C. Wilbur, 2018. "Dynamic Quality Ladder Model Predictions in Nonrandom Holdout Samples," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(7), pages 3187-3207, July.
    14. Taisuke Otsu & Martin Pesendorfer, 2023. "Equilibrium multiplicity in dynamic games: Testing and estimation," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 26-42.
    15. Kaplow, Louis & Shapiro, Carl, 2007. "Antitrust," Handbook of Law and Economics, in: A. Mitchell Polinsky & Steven Shavell (ed.), Handbook of Law and Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 1073-1225, Elsevier.
    16. Tobias Salz & Emanuel Vespa, 2020. "Estimating dynamic games of oligopolistic competition: an experimental investigation," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(2), pages 447-469, June.
    17. Taisuke Otsu & Martin Pesendorfer & Yuya Sasaki & Yuya Takahashi, 2022. "Estimation Of (Static Or Dynamic) Games Under Equilibrium Multiplicity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1165-1188, August.
    18. Nicolas Vieille, 2010. "Recursive Methods in Discounted Stochastic Games: An Algorithm for - 1 and a Folk Theorem," Post-Print hal-00543616, HAL.
    19. Marie Laclau & Tristan Tomala, 2016. "Repeated games with public information revisited," PSE Working Papers hal-01285326, HAL.
    20. Joao Macieira, 2010. "Oblivious Equilibrium in Dynamic Discrete Games," 2010 Meeting Papers 680, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic games; Multiple equilibria; Equilibrium payoff set; Partial identification; Collusion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • L4 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:87:y:2023:i:c:s016771872200090x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505551 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.