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Even the losers get lucky sometimes: New products and the evolution of music quality since Napster

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  • Aguiar, Luis
  • Waldfogel, Joel

Abstract

Using comprehensive digital sales data by time and vintage on the US, Canada, and 15 European countries, we infer the evolution of music vintage quality, finding that vintage service flow has increased since 2000. We explain the result with unpredictability of music quality at the time of investment along with growing releases. Evidence shows (a) products with modest prospects at release, – from artists on independent labels and from new artists, – occupy a growing share of the top products; and (b) despite growth in the number of products, sales are growing more concentrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Aguiar, Luis & Waldfogel, Joel, 2016. "Even the losers get lucky sometimes: New products and the evolution of music quality since Napster," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:iepoli:v:34:y:2016:i:c:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1016/j.infoecopol.2015.12.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joel Waldfogel, 2017. "The Random Long Tail and the Golden Age of Television," Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(1), pages 1-25.
    2. Savelkoul, Ruben, 2020. "Superstars vs the long tail: How does music piracy affect digital song sales for different segments of the industry?," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Marc Ivaldi & Ambre Nicolle & Frank Verboven & Jiekai Zhang, 2024. "Displacement and complementarity in the recorded music industry: evidence from France," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 48(1), pages 43-94, March.
    4. Joel Waldfogel, 2017. "How Digitization Has Created a Golden Age of Music, Movies, Books, and Television," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 195-214, Summer.
    5. T. Randolph Beard & George S. Ford & Gilad Sorek & Lawrence J. Spiwak, 2018. "Piracy, Imitation, and Optimal Copyright Policy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(3), pages 815-830, January.
    6. Kevin J. Boudreau, 2018. "Amateurs Crowds & Professional Entrepreneurs as Platform Complementors," NBER Working Papers 24512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:hal:journl:hal-04679366 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Shinichi Yamaguchi, 2021. "The effect of online C2C markets on new-product-purchasing behavior: an empirical analysis of Japanese selling apps," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, January.
    9. Marc Bourreau & François Moreau & Patrik Wikström, 2022. "Does digitization lead to the homogenization of cultural content?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 427-453, January.
    10. Essling, Christian & Koenen, Johannes & Peukert, Christian, 2017. "Competition for attention in the digital age: The case of single releases in the recorded music industry," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 26-40.
    11. Luis Aguiar & Joel Waldfogel, 2018. "Quality Predictability and the Welfare Benefits from New Products: Evidence from the Digitization of Recorded Music," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 492-524.
    12. Telang, Rahul & Waldfogel, Joel, 2018. "Piracy and new product creation: A Bollywood story," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-11.
    13. Tobias Kretschmer & Christian Peukert, 2020. "Video Killed the Radio Star? Online Music Videos and Recorded Music Sales," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(3), pages 776-800, September.
    14. Johannes Loh, 2022. "Selection, Consumption, and New Music Exploration in an Online Social Network: A Dyadic Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 10120, CESifo.
    15. Aguiar, Luis & Martens, Bertin, 2016. "Digital music consumption on the Internet: Evidence from clickstream data," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 27-43.
    16. Christian Peukert & Margaritha Windisch, 2023. "The Economics of Copyright in the Digital Age," CESifo Working Paper Series 10687, CESifo.
    17. George, Lisa M., 2016. "Mobile, Media & More: Contributions and Developments at Information Economics and Policy," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-2.
    18. Daniel Kaimann & Ilka Tanneberg & Joe Cox, 2021. "“I will survive”: Online streaming and the chart survival of music tracks," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 3-20, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Digital music; Digitization; Copyright;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • K11 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Property Law

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