IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/glofin/v55y2023ics1044028323000029.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Managerial market timing under credit risk: How do timed buybacks and stock issuances influence the value of long-term shareholders?

Author

Listed:
  • Vogt, Jan

Abstract

Using discounted cash flow valuation together with a Merton-style credit risk model this paper quantifies the effects of credit risk on timed equity buybacks and issuances. Assumed managers act in best interest of their long-term shareholders and do have superior information, the potential value gain for long-term shareholders out of market timing with and without credit risk is evaluated. As demonstrated in a real-world example, credit risk is important. Ignoring credit risk results in value gains of buybacks motivated by smaller (larger) mispricing levels being underestimated (overestimated), while value gains of issuances driven by lower (larger) mispricings are overestimated (underestimated). These effects are stronger for firms with higher debt levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Vogt, Jan, 2023. "Managerial market timing under credit risk: How do timed buybacks and stock issuances influence the value of long-term shareholders?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:55:y:2023:i:c:s1044028323000029
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2023.100807
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1044028323000029
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.gfj.2023.100807?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hovakimian, Armen & Opler, Tim & Titman, Sheridan, 2001. "The Debt-Equity Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    4. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2000. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2219-2257, October.
    5. Missaka Warusawitharana & Toni M. Whited, 2016. "Equity Market Misvaluation, Financing, and Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 603-654.
    6. Stein, Jeremy C, 1996. "Rational Capital Budgeting in an Irrational World," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(4), pages 429-455, October.
    7. Denis Gromb & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Limits of Arbitrage: The State of the Theory," NBER Working Papers 15821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:313-333 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    10. Taggart, Robert A, Jr, 1977. "A Model of Corporate Financing Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(5), pages 1467-1484, December.
    11. Elliott, William B. & Koëter-Kant, Johanna & Warr, Richard S., 2008. "Market timing and the debt-equity choice," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 175-197, April.
    12. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1997. "The Operating Performance of Firms Conducting Seasoned Equity Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1823-1850, December.
    13. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2013. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: An Updated Survey," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 357-424, Elsevier.
    14. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    15. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    16. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Stulz, René M., 2010. "Seasoned equity offerings, market timing, and the corporate lifecycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 275-295, March.
    17. Sheng Huang & Anjan V. Thakor, 2013. "Investor Heterogeneity, Investor-Management Disagreement and Share Repurchases," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(10), pages 2453-2491.
    18. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    19. Vogt, Jan, 2021. "Managerial market timing: What is the pot size for long-term shareholders assuming firm management acts in their best interest and does have an informational advantage?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    20. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    21. Denis, David J. & Sarin, Atulya, 2001. "Is the Market Surprised by Poor Earnings Realizations following Seasoned Equity Offerings?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 169-193, June.
    22. Paul Schultz, 2003. "Pseudo Market Timing and the Long‐Run Underperformance of IPOs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 483-517, April.
    23. Eckbo, B. Espen & Masulis, Ronald W. & Norli, Oyvind, 2000. "Seasoned public offerings: resolution of the 'new issues puzzle'," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 251-291, May.
    24. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:3:p:975-1008 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. "The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
    26. Amy Dittmar & Anjan Thakor, 2007. "Why Do Firms Issue Equity?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-54, February.
    27. Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa‐Clara, 2003. "Idiosyncratic Risk Matters!," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 975-1007, June.
    28. Henderson, Brian J. & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Weisbach, Michael S., 2006. "World markets for raising new capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 63-101, October.
    29. Almeida, Heitor & Fos, Vyacheslav & Kronlund, Mathias, 2016. "The real effects of share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 168-185.
    30. Laurie Simon Bagwell, 1991. "Share Repurchase and Takeover Deterrence," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 22(1), pages 72-88, Spring.
    31. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:2:p:483-518 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Market Timing and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 1-32, February.
    33. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1973. "A State-Preference Model of Optimal Financial Leverage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 911-922, September.
    34. Marsh, Paul, 1982. "The Choice between Equity and Debt: An Empirical Study," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 121-144, March.
    35. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Dittmar, Amy & Field, Laura Casares, 2015. "Can managers time the market? Evidence using repurchase price data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 261-282.
    37. Vermaelen, Theo, 1981. "Common stock repurchases and market signalling : An empirical study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 139-183, June.
    38. Gao, Xiaohui & Ritter, Jay R., 2010. "The marketing of seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 33-52, July.
    39. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:651-680 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Ritter, Jay R, 1991. "The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March.
    41. Manconi, Alberto & Peyer, Urs & Vermaelen, Theo, 2019. "Are Buybacks Good for Long-Term Shareholder Value? Evidence from Buybacks around the World," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(5), pages 1899-1935, October.
    42. George W. Fenn & J. Nellie Liang, 1997. "Good news and bad news about share repurchases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    43. Denis Gromb & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Limits of Arbitrage," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 251-275, December.
    44. Dittmar, Amy K, 2000. "Why Do Firms Repurchase Stock?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 331-355, July.
    45. Ming Dong & Igor Loncarski & Jenke ter Horst & Chris Veld, 2012. "What Drives Security Issuance Decisions: Market Timing, Pecking Order, or Both?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 637-663, September.
    46. Ilona Babenko & Yuri Tserlukevich & Pengcheng Wan, 2020. "Is Market Timing Good for Shareholders?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(8), pages 3542-3560, August.
    47. Sloan, Richard G. & You, Haifeng, 2015. "Wealth transfers via equity transactions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 93-112.
    48. Peter Feldhütter & Stephen M Schaefer, 2018. "The Myth of the Credit Spread Puzzle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(8), pages 2897-2942.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vogt, Jan, 2021. "Managerial market timing: What is the pot size for long-term shareholders assuming firm management acts in their best interest and does have an informational advantage?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    2. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2012. "Market timing, taxes and capital structure: evidence from Vietnam," OSF Preprints t3mvs, Center for Open Science.
    4. Shahram Amini & Vijay Singal, 2020. "Are earnings predictable?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(3), pages 528-562, July.
    5. Ulrike Malmendier, 2018. "Behavioral Corporate Finance," NBER Working Papers 25162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Market Timing and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 1-32, February.
    7. Andres, Christian & Cumming, Douglas & Karabiber, Timur & Schweizer, Denis, 2014. "Do markets anticipate capital structure decisions? — Feedback effects in equity liquidity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 133-156.
    8. Chen, Yi-Wen & Chou, Robin K. & Lin, Chu-Bin, 2019. "Investor sentiment, SEO market timing, and stock price performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 28-43.
    9. Ilona Babenko & Yuri Tserlukevich & Pengcheng Wan, 2020. "Is Market Timing Good for Shareholders?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(8), pages 3542-3560, August.
    10. Lan, Yueqin & Huang, Yong & Yan, Chao, 2021. "Investor sentiment and stock price: Empirical evidence from Chinese SEOs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 703-714.
    11. Ming Dong & David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Overvalued Equity and Financing Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3645-3683.
    12. Wadhwa, Kavita & Neupane, Suman & Syamala, Sudhakara Reddy, 2019. "Do group-affiliated firms time their equity offerings?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 73-92.
    13. Arosa, Clara Maria Verduch & Richie, Nivine & Schuhmann, Peter W., 2014. "The impact of culture on market timing in capital structure choices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 178-192.
    14. Tijs Bie & Leo Haan, 2007. "Market Timing and Capital Structure: Evidence for Dutch Firms," De Economist, Springer, vol. 155(2), pages 183-206, June.
    15. Urzúa Infante, F., 2014. "Essays on ownership and control," Other publications TiSEM f17a9a42-f7a7-4ffa-a95d-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Pensa, Pascal & Wöhle, Claudia B., 2004. "Kapitalstrukturtheorie in Theorie und Praxis: Ergebnisse einer Fragebogenuntersuchung," Working papers 2004/09, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    17. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Stulz, René M., 2010. "Seasoned equity offerings, market timing, and the corporate lifecycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 275-295, March.
    18. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Stulz, Rene, 2007. "Fundamentals, Market Timing, and Seasoned Equity Offerings," Working Paper Series 2007-13, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    19. Altı, Aydoğan & Sulaeman, Johan, 2012. "When do high stock returns trigger equity issues?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 61-87.
    20. Patrice Fontaine & Sujiao Zhao, 2021. "Suppliers as financial intermediaries: Trade credit for undervalued firms," Post-Print hal-03507994, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market timing; Capital structure; Valuation; Share issuance; Share buybacks; Credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:55:y:2023:i:c:s1044028323000029. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620162 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.