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Pseudo Market Timing and the Long‐Run Underperformance of IPOs

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  • Paul Schultz

Abstract

Numerous studies document long‐run underperformance by firms following equity offerings. This paper shows that underperformance is very likely to be observed ex‐post in an efficient market. The premise is that more firms issue equity at higher stock prices even though they cannot predict future returns. Ex‐post, issuers seem to time the market because offerings cluster at market peaks. Simulations based on 1973 through 1997 data reveal that when ex‐ante expected abnormal returns are zero, median ex‐post underperformance for equity issuers will be significantly negative in event‐time. Using calendar‐time returns solves the problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Schultz, 2003. "Pseudo Market Timing and the Long‐Run Underperformance of IPOs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 483-517, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:2:p:483-517
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6261.00535
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    Cited by:

    1. Sureyya Burcu Avci, 2020. "Do Turkish IPOs Time the Market?," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 114-134.
    2. Sarthak Kumar Jena & Chandra Sekhar Mishra, 2018. "Do Insiders Trading Before Open Market Share Repurchase Announcement Give an Additional Signaling? A Study in The Indian Context," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 14(2), pages 103-135.
    3. Hsu, Junming & Yang, Tung-Hsiao & Tsai, Yi-Chi, 2021. "The long-run performance of cross-border acquirers: An analysis of synergy sources," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ning, Shaolin & Hsieh, Meng-Fen & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2020. "The going-public decision and rent-seeking activities: Evidence from Chinese private companies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    5. Michala, Dimitra, 2019. "Are private equity backed initial public offerings any different? Timing, information asymmetry and post-IPO survival," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 31-47.
    6. Rohan Chinchwadkar & Rama Seth, 2018. "The Choice of Exit: Influence of Private Equity Investors and Buyout Entry," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(1_suppl), pages 1-26, April.
    7. Vogt, Jan, 2023. "Managerial market timing under credit risk: How do timed buybacks and stock issuances influence the value of long-term shareholders?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    8. Knill, April M. & Lee, Bong Soo & Ang, James, 2021. "Leveling of the playing field and corporate financing patterns around the world," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    9. Vogt, Jan, 2021. "Managerial market timing: What is the pot size for long-term shareholders assuming firm management acts in their best interest and does have an informational advantage?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    10. Su, Chen, 2015. "Does institutional reform improve the impact of investment bank reputation on the long-term stock performance of initial public offerings?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 445-470.
    11. Tsai-Yin Lin & Jerry Yu & Chia-Yi Lin, 2021. "IPO’s Long-Run Performance: Hot Market versus Earnings Management," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-16, March.
    12. Till Drebinger & Shailendra Kumar Rai & Heiko Hinrichs, 2019. "Performance of IPOs of Indian Companies Backed by Private Equity," Vision, , vol. 23(4), pages 397-409, December.

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