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Does relative valuation work for banks?

Author

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  • Forte, Gianfranco
  • Gianfrate, Gianfranco
  • Rossi, Emanuele

Abstract

We study the distribution and properties of valuation errors yielded by banking industry multiples for European and U.S. banks. The results highlight that stock-market multiples are best suited for U.S. institutions, and that a two-year-forward P/E is the most precise metric. Contrary to practitioner beliefs, P/tangible book value is less meaningful than P/BV. Multiples are less accurate for small commercial banks than for large ones, and for investment banks than for retail banks. We investigate whether large positive errors lead to one-year positive price performances and negative errors to negative price changes, and find that the forward P/E loses its predictive ability in comparison with historical multiples. Testing three investment strategies, we find that bank multiples can be profitably used in portfolio choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Forte, Gianfranco & Gianfrate, Gianfranco & Rossi, Emanuele, 2020. "Does relative valuation work for banks?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:44:y:2020:i:c:s1044028317304787
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2018.09.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Skočir, Matevž & Lončarski, Igor, 2024. "On the importance of asset pricing factors in the relative valuation," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; Relative valuation; Banking multiples; Equity valuation; Valuation errors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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