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Stock Market Valuation, Foreign Investment, and Cross-Country Arbitrage

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  • Wang, Liu

Abstract

This study investigates the role of stock market valuation and cross-country arbitrage in shaping foreign direct and indirect investments, contingent upon a country's stage of development. This paper is built upon the mispricing-driven foreign investment hypotheses developed by Baker, Foley, and Wurgler (2009). Interesting findings emerge when developed and emerging markets are considered separately. Empirical evidence indicates that the use of relatively cheap financial capital for foreign investment is prominent among developed countries, but not so in emerging markets. This is largely due to the extremely low level of foreign investment outflows in emerging markets and the inability of unsophisticated emerging market managers to successfully time the market. Further investigation shows that host-country stock market valuation is an important determinant of the mode of foreign investment; investors tend to choose indirect or portfolio investment, as opposed to direct investment, when the stock market is perceived to be undervalued. This is especially the case in emerging markets, where there is more room for misvaluation and potential arbitrage. These findings suggest that the unique institutional features of the markets involved play an important role in shaping foreign investment and cross-country arbitrage.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Liu, 2019. "Stock Market Valuation, Foreign Investment, and Cross-Country Arbitrage," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 74-84.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:40:y:2019:i:c:p:74-84
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2018.01.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
    2. Malcolm Baker & C. Fritz Foley & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2009. "Multinationals as Arbitrageurs: The Effect of Stock Market Valuations on Foreign Direct Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 337-369, January.
    3. David W Loree & Stephen E Guisinger, 1995. "Policy and Non-Policy Determinants of U.S. Equity Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 26(2), pages 281-299, June.
    4. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 2003. "Stock market driven acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 295-311, December.
    5. Steven Globerman & Daniel Shapiro, 2003. "Governance infrastructure and US foreign direct investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 34(1), pages 19-39, January.
    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1161-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Pontiff, Jeffrey & Schall, Lawrence D., 1998. "Book-to-market ratios as predictors of market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 141-160, August.
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    Cited by:

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