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A method for evaluating the extreme risk sources of financial markets: The case of stock markets in China

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  • Di, Junpeng
  • Zhu, Pingfang

Abstract

Risk contagion has attracted increasing research attention in recent years. In this paper, we combined conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), Bayesian quantile regression and Granger causality test to propose a Bayesian CVaR–Granger causality test method, which is an efficient tool in analyzing sources of extreme risks in a financial market. Using this method, we determined the sources of extreme risks in major stock markets in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Di, Junpeng & Zhu, Pingfang, 2015. "A method for evaluating the extreme risk sources of financial markets: The case of stock markets in China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 18-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:26:y:2015:i:c:p:18-28
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2015.01.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-542, May.
    2. Len Umantsev & Victor Chernozhukov, 2001. "Conditional value-at-risk: Aspects of modeling and estimation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 271-292.
    3. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
    4. Hong, Yongmiao & Liu, Yanhui & Wang, Shouyang, 2009. "Granger causality in risk and detection of extreme risk spillover between financial markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 271-287, June.
    5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    6. Yu, Keming & Moyeed, Rana A., 2001. "Bayesian quantile regression," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 437-447, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian quantile regression; CVaR–Granger causality test; Extreme risk; Source;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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