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Bargaining over bets

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  • Eliaz, Kfir
  • Spiegler, Ran

Abstract

When two agents hold different priors over an unverifiable state of nature, which affects the outcome of a game they are about to play, they have an incentive to bet on the game's outcome. We pose the following question: what are the limits to the agents' ability to realize gains from such speculative bets when their priors are private information? We apply a "mechanism design" approach to this question. We characterize interim-efficient bets and discuss their implementability in terms of the underlying game's payoff structure. In particular, we show that as the costs of unilaterally manipulating the bet's outcome become more symmetric across states and agents, implementation becomes easier.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliaz, Kfir & Spiegler, Ran, 2009. "Bargaining over bets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 78-97, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:66:y:2009:i:1:p:78-97
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sandroni, Alvaro & Squintani, Francesco, 2013. "Overconfidence and asymmetric information: The case of insurance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 149-165.
    2. Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler, 2008. "Optimal speculative trade among large traders," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 12(1), pages 45-74, April.
    3. Wenner, Lukas M., 2018. "Do sellers exploit biased beliefs of buyers? An experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 194-215.
    4. Anja Sautmann, 2011. "Contracts for Agents with Biased Beliefs: Some Theory and an Experiment," Working Papers 2011-10, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    5. Stefano Galavotti & Nozomu Muto & Daisuke Oyama, 2011. "On efficient partnership dissolution under ex post individual rationality," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 48(1), pages 87-123, September.
    6. Antler, Yair, 2018. "Multilevel Marketing: Pyramid-Shaped Schemes or Exploitative Scams?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13054, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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