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Intervention analysis of COVID-19 pandemic impact on timber price in selected markets

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  • Hlaváčková, Petra
  • Banaś, Jan
  • Utnik-Banaś, Katarzyna

Abstract

Using intervention analysis and time series of roundwood prices from ten European and North American countries, we analyzed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the movement of timber prices. The study material consists of forty-six quarterly time series prices of logs and pulp, both softwood and hardwood, covering the period 2005–2022. During the Covid-19 pandemic period (2020:Q1-2020:Q4), softwood log prices mostly underwent declines, with the changes being the largest in Slovakia (−35%), the Czech Republic (−24%) and Austria (−24%), slightly smaller in the United States (−19%), Poland (−17%), Slovenia (−12%) and Germany (−11%) while no significant price changes were recorded in Finland and Sweden. In Canada and the United States, sharp price declines occurred earlier (2020:Q1 and 2020:Q2, respectively), while in Europe, significant price declines occurred later and lasted longer. In the post-pandemic COVID-19 period, prices increased, but in most cases, the shift was not statistically significant compared to the pre-pandemic period. Softwood pulp prices were subject to much less change, with a significant increase only in Slovakia and Poland. In contrast, no significant changes were observed in the price of both log and pulpwood hardwood during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Hlaváčková, Petra & Banaś, Jan & Utnik-Banaś, Katarzyna, 2024. "Intervention analysis of COVID-19 pandemic impact on timber price in selected markets," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:159:y:2024:i:c:s1389934123002186
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103123
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Muhammad, Andrew & Hellwinckel, Chad M. & Anosike, Ejimofor & Taylor, Adam, 2022. "Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tennessee Forest Product Exports," Extension Reports 319769, University of Tennessee, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
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    3. Banaś, Jan & Utnik-Banaś, Katarzyna, 2021. "Evaluating a seasonal autoregressive moving average model with an exogenous variable for short-term timber price forecasting," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Maraseni, Tek & Poudyal, Bishnu Hari & Aryal, Kishor & Laudari, Hari Krishna, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 in the forestry sector: A case of lowland region of Nepal," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    5. Asada, Raphael & Hurmekoski, Elias & Hoeben, Annechien Dirkje & Patacca, Marco & Stern, Tobias & Toppinen, Anne, 2023. "Resilient forest-based value chains? Econometric analysis of roundwood prices in five European countries in the era of natural disturbances," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Lamichhane, Sabhyata & Mei, Bin & Siry, Jacek, 2023. "Forecasting pine sawtimber stumpage prices: A comparison between a time series hybrid model and an artificial neural network," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    7. Banaś, Jan & Šafařík, Dalibor & Utnik-Banaś, Katarzyna & Hlaváčková, Petra, 2022. "Identifying long-run and short-run relationships in the European Union softwood market," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
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