IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v155y2023ics138993412300093x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are prices converging in the global sawnwood market?

Author

Listed:
  • Gil, Jose M.
  • Montañés, Antonio
  • Vásquez-González, Bernardo

Abstract

This paper aims at addressing if the increasing globalization in the international sawnwood markets has caused export prices to converge to a single reference price or, alternatively, certain restrictions remain to generate a segmented market where different reference prices for each market segment co-exist. Annual price series for the top-10 exporting countries are considered for that purpose. Results show that the data cannot support the null hypothesis of convergence. Instead, the global sawnwood market appears to be segmented into two convergence clubs (Chile-USA-Latvia-New Zealand and Canada-Germany-Austria-Finland-Sweden), while the Russian Federation exhibits an independent pathway. Causality tests are conducted to analyze the price dynamics in the global sawnwood products indicating that international price relationships are demand-driven. Finally, results suggest that the inclusion of a country in a particular convergence club is mainly determined by the price differential between countries (competition factors), and to a lesser extent, by the countries' combined market share in the global market (catching-up factors).

Suggested Citation

  • Gil, Jose M. & Montañés, Antonio & Vásquez-González, Bernardo, 2023. "Are prices converging in the global sawnwood market?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:155:y:2023:i:c:s138993412300093x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2023.102998
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S138993412300093X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.forpol.2023.102998?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
    2. Fuhrmann, Marilene & Dißauer, Christa & Strasser, Christoph & Schmid, Erwin, 2021. "Analysing price cointegration of sawmill by-products in the forest-based sector in Austria," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2013. "Cross‐State Disparities In Us Health Care Expenditures," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 451-465, April.
    4. Panayiotis Tzeremes & Nickolaos G. Tzeremes, 2018. "A convergence assessment of water price rates: evidence from major U.S. cities," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 361-368, October.
    5. Barry K. Goodwin, 1992. "Multivariate Cointegration Tests and the Law of one Price: A Clarification and Correction," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 337-338.
    6. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
    7. Pier Giorgio Ardeni, 1989. "Does the Law of One Price Really Hold for Commodity Prices?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(3), pages 661-669.
    8. Josep Lluis Carrion-I-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2007. "Stochastic Convergence amongst Mexican States," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 531-541.
    9. Strazicich, Mark C. & Lee, Junsoo & Day, Edward, 2004. "Are incomes converging among OECD countries? Time series evidence with two structural breaks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 131-145, March.
    10. Yin, Runsheng & Xu, Jintao, 2003. "Identifying the inter-market relationships of forest products in the Pacific Northwest with cointegration and causality tests," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 305-315, September.
    11. Chudy, R.P. & Hagler, R.W., 2020. "Dynamics of global roundwood prices – Cointegration analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    12. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-478, October.
    13. Stordal, Stale & Nyrud, Anders Q., 2003. "Testing roundwood market efficiency using a multivariate cointegration estimator," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 57-68, January.
    14. Guannan Miao & Enrico Wegner, 2022. "Using unit value indices as proxies for international merchandise trade prices," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2022/01, OECD Publishing.
    15. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    16. Kurt Niquidet & Bruce Manley, 2008. "Regional Log Market Integration in New Zealand," Working Papers 2008-03, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
    17. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    18. Nanang, David M., 2000. "A multivariate cointegration test of the law of one price for Canadian softwood lumber markets," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 347-355, December.
    19. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2009. "Economic transition and growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1153-1185.
    20. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    21. Yin, Runsheng & Newman, David H. & Siry, Jacek, 2002. "Testing for market integration among southern pine regions," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 151-166.
    22. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    23. Montañés, A. & Olmos, L., 2013. "Convergence in US house prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 152-155.
    24. Loewy, Michael B. & Papell, David H., 1996. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-598, December.
    25. Francisco Blanco & Victor Martín & Guillermo Vazquez, 2016. "Regional house price convergence in Spain during the housing boom," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(4), pages 775-798, March.
    26. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    27. Quah, D., 1990. "Galton'S Fallacy And The Tests Of The Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 552, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    28. Walter Isard & Merton J. Peck, 1954. "Location Theory and International and Interregional Trade Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 68(1), pages 97-114.
    29. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Convergence revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 249-265, April.
    30. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
    31. Toivonen, Ritva & Toppinen, Anne & Tilli, Tapio, 2002. "Integration of roundwood markets in Austria, Finland and Sweden," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 33-42, May.
    32. Barry K. Goodwin, 1992. "Multivariate Cointegration Tests and the Law of One Price in International Wheat Markets," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 117-124.
    33. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
    34. Walter Isard, 1954. "Location Theory and Trade Theory: Short-Run Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 68(2), pages 305-320.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Montañés, Antonio & Olmos, Lorena & Reyes, Marcelo, 2018. "Has the Great Recession affected the convergence process? The case of Spanish provinces," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 360-371.
    2. Delgado Narro, Augusto Ricardo, 2020. "The Process of Convergence among the Japanese Prefectures: 1955 - 2012," MPRA Paper 100361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2009. "Panel data stochastic convergence analysis of the Mexican regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 303-327, October.
    4. Montañés, Antonio & Olmos, Lorena & Reyes, Marcelo, 2016. "Does crisis affect convergence process? The case of the Spanish provinces," MPRA Paper 69543, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ferreira Paulo & Dionísio Andreia, 2016. "GDP growth and convergence determinants in the European Union: a crisp-set analysis," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 16(4), pages 279-296, December.
    6. A. Monta & L. Olmos, 2014. "Do the Spanish regions converge? A unit root analysis for the HDI of the Spanish regions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(34), pages 4218-4230, December.
    7. Kim, Young Se & Rous, Jeffrey J., 2012. "House price convergence: Evidence from US state and metropolitan area panels," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 169-186.
    8. Le Pen, Yannick, 2011. "A pair-wise approach to output convergence between European regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 955-964, May.
    9. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2006. "Real convergence in Africa in the second-half of the 20th century," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 153-167.
    10. Matsuki, Takashi, 2019. "Per capita output convergence across Asian countries: Evidence from covariate unit root test with an endogenous structural break," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 99-118.
    11. Burcu Ozcan, 2014. "Does Income Converge among EU Member Countries following the Post-War Period? Evidence from the PANKPSS Test," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 22-38, October.
    12. Evan Lau & Koon Po Lee, 2008. "Interdependence of income between China and ASEAN‐5 countries," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(2), pages 148-161, June.
    13. Cem Ertur & Julie Le Gallo & Catherine Baumont, 2006. "The European Regional Convergence Process, 1980-1995: Do Spatial Regimes and Spatial Dependence Matter?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(1), pages 3-34, January.
    14. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darne & Jean-François Hoarau, 2012. "Convergence of real per capita GDP within COMESA countries: A panel unit root evidence," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(1), pages 53-71, August.
    15. Joseph Aldy, 2006. "Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(4), pages 533-555, April.
    16. Tunali, Çiǧdem Börke & Yilanci, Veli, 2010. "Are per capita incomes of MENA countries converging or diverging?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4855-4862.
    17. Banaś, Jan & Šafařík, Dalibor & Utnik-Banaś, Katarzyna & Hlaváčková, Petra, 2022. "Identifying long-run and short-run relationships in the European Union softwood market," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    18. Werner, Daniel, 2013. "New insights into the development of regional unemployment disparities," IAB-Discussion Paper 201311, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    19. Lin, Pei-Chien & Huang, Ho-Chuan (River), 2012. "Inequality convergence revisited: Evidence from stationarity panel tests with breaks and cross correlation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 316-325.
    20. Serranito, Francisco, 2013. "Heterogeneous technology and the technological catching-up hypothesis: Theory and assessment in the case of MENA countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 685-697.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:155:y:2023:i:c:s138993412300093x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.