IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v142y2022ics1389934122000946.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forest succession, management and the economy under a changing climate: Coupling economic and forest management models to assess impacts and adaptation options

Author

Listed:
  • Lantz, Van
  • McMonagle, Galen
  • Hennigar, Chris
  • Sharma, Chinmay
  • Withey, Patrick
  • Ochuodho, Thomas

Abstract

Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on forests by affecting the successional dynamics of tree species and the performance of plantations, among others. Research is needed to better understand how these factors will affect forests and economies in different regions, and how we can best adapt. To shed some light on these issues, we couple an economic (Computable General Equilibrium) model with a forest management (Woodstock) model to analyze the potential climate change impacts and adaptation options on timber supply and the economy over the 2015–95 period in a case-study province of New Brunswick, Canada. We estimate that climate change may have relatively large negative impacts on softwood timber supply (at 26% by 2095), softwood forestry & logging sector output quantity (at 12% by 2095), and softwood-dependent forestry manufacturing sector output (ranging from 6% to 27% by 2095). Negative impacts on GDP may be relatively smaller (at up to a 0.33% reduction by 2095). Adapting to these climate-related changes by planting drought-resistant softwood seedlings or hardwood seedlings in place of failed softwood plantations can minimize these negative impacts, and in the latter case, positively impact hardwood timber supply and output. While the former adaptation option is supported using cost-benefit analysis, the latter is not – due to the large incremental costs of growing, planting, and tending hardwood seedlings. Methods developed in this study can be applied in other regions to help guide decision-making around forest management in the face of a changing climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Lantz, Van & McMonagle, Galen & Hennigar, Chris & Sharma, Chinmay & Withey, Patrick & Ochuodho, Thomas, 2022. "Forest succession, management and the economy under a changing climate: Coupling economic and forest management models to assess impacts and adaptation options," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:142:y:2022:i:c:s1389934122000946
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102781
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934122000946
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102781?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Das, Gouranga G. & Alavalapati, Janaki R. R. & Carter, Douglas R. & Tsigas, Marinos E., 2005. "Regional impacts of environmental regulations and technical change in the US forestry sector: a multiregional CGE analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 25-38, January.
    2. Ochuodho, Thomas O. & Lantz, Van A. & Olale, Edward, 2016. "Economic impacts of climate change considering individual, additive, and simultaneous changes in forest and agriculture sectors in Canada: A dynamic, multi-regional CGE model analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 43-51.
    3. Carlo Fezzi & Ian Bateman, 2015. "The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Nonlinear Effects and Aggregation Bias in Ricardian Models of Farmland Values," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 57-92.
    4. Sohngen, Brent & Mendelsohn, Robert & Sedjo, Roger A., 2001. "A Global Model Of Climate Change Impacts On Timber Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Jianhong Mu & Bruce McCarl & Anne Wein, 2013. "Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 713-730, August.
    6. Ochuodho, T.O. & Lantz, V.A. & Lloyd-Smith, P. & Benitez, P., 2012. "Regional economic impacts of climate change and adaptation in Canadian forests: A CGE modeling analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 100-112.
    7. Zhang, Jian & Alavalapati, Janaki R.R. & Shrestha, Ram K. & Hodges, Alan W., 2005. "Economic impacts of closing national forests for commercial timber production in Florida and Liberty County," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 207-223, February.
    8. Banerjee, Onil & Alavalapati, Janaki, 2009. "A computable general equilibrium analysis of forest concessions in Brazil," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 244-252, July.
    9. Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-937, July.
    10. Narayan Dhital & Fr�d�ric Raulier & Pierre Y. Bernier & Marie-Pierre Lapointe-Garant & Frank Berninger & Yves Bergeron, 2015. "Adaptation potential of ecosystem-based management to climate change in the eastern Canadian boreal forest," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(12), pages 2228-2249, December.
    11. Dymond, Caren Christine & Giles-Hansen, Krysta & Asante, Patrick, 2020. "The forest mitigation-adaptation nexus: Economic benefits of novel planting regimes," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Patrick Withey & Chinmay Sharma & Van Lantz & Galen McMonagle & Thomas O. Ochuodho, 2022. "Economy-wide and CO2 impacts of carbon taxes and output-based pricing in New Brunswick, Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(26), pages 2998-3015, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Baker, Justin S. & Van Houtven, George & Phelan, Jennifer & Latta, Gregory & Clark, Christopher M. & Austin, Kemen G. & Sodiya, Olakunle E. & Ohrel, Sara B. & Buckley, John & Gentile, Lauren E. & Mart, 2023. "Projecting U.S. forest management, market, and carbon sequestration responses to a high-impact climate scenario," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Manta, Alina Georgiana, 2023. "Are climate and geopolitics the challenges to sustainable development? Novel evidence from the global supply chain," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 748-763.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ochuodho, T.O. & Lantz, V.A. & Lloyd-Smith, P. & Benitez, P., 2012. "Regional economic impacts of climate change and adaptation in Canadian forests: A CGE modeling analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 100-112.
    2. Withey, P. & Lantz, V.A. & Ochuodho, T. & Patriquin, M.N. & Wilson, J. & Kennedy, M., 2018. "Economic impacts of conservation area strategies in Alberta, Canada: A CGE model analysis," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 33-40.
    3. Jie Yan & Ruiliang Wang, 2024. "Green Fiscal and Tax Policies in China: An Environmental Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-24, April.
    4. Etwire, Prince Maxwell, 2020. "The impact of climate change on farming system selection in Ghana," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    5. Jianhong E. Mu & Benjamin M. Sleeter & John T. Abatzoglou & John M. Antle, 2017. "Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 329-345, September.
    6. Joseph E. Aldy & Alan J. Krupnick & Richard G. Newell & Ian W. H. Parry & William A. Pizer, 2010. "Designing Climate Mitigation Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 903-934, December.
    7. Brecka, Aaron F.J. & Shahi, Chander & Chen, Han Y.H., 2018. "Climate change impacts on boreal forest timber supply," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 11-21.
    8. Baker, J.S. & Wade, C.M. & Sohngen, B.L. & Ohrel, S. & Fawcett, A.A., 2019. "Potential complementarity between forest carbon sequestration incentives and biomass energy expansion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 391-401.
    9. Khanna, Neha & Chapman, Duane, 1997. "Climate Policy and Petroleum Depletion in an Optimal Growth Framework," Staff Papers 121172, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    10. Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "The Marginal Costs Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Assessment Of The Uncertainties," Working Papers FNU-19, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2003.
    11. Hsing-Hsiang Huang & Michael R. Moore, 2018. "Farming under Weather Risk: Adaptation, Moral Hazard, and Selection on Moral Hazard," NBER Chapters, in: Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior, pages 77-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Oliver Fromm, 2000. "Ecological Structure and Functions of Biodiversity as Elements of Its Total Economic Value," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 16(3), pages 303-328, July.
    13. Rose, Steven K., 2014. "Integrated assessment modeling of climate change adaptation in forestry and pasture land use: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 548-554.
    14. Ji, Xinde & Cobourn, Kelly M. & Weng, Weizhe, 2018. "The Effect of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture: Water-Temperature Interactions and Adaptation in the Western U.S," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274306, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Karp, Larry S. & Liu, Xuemei, 1998. "Valuing Tradeable Co2 Permits For Oecd Countries," CUDARE Working Papers 25054, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    16. Harrigan, Frank, 2000. "Macroeconomic Income Adjustment and Tropical Forest Conservation: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Malaysia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 491-531, July.
    17. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly & Johannes Stroebel, 2021. "Climate Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 15-36, November.
    18. Christian Azar, 1999. "Weight Factors in Cost-Benefit Analysis of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(3), pages 249-268, April.
    19. Parry, Ian W. H. & Williams III, Roberton C., 1999. "A second-best evaluation of eight policy instruments to reduce carbon emissions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 347-373, August.
    20. Francois J. Stofberg & Jan H. van Heerden, 2015. "The Short Term Economic Impact of Levying E-Tolls on Industries," Working Papers 201527, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:142:y:2022:i:c:s1389934122000946. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.