Linking physical, economic and institutional constraints of land use change and forest conservation in the hills of Nepal

This paper analyses the changes in spatial patterns of agricultural land use during the period 1976-2000 along the altitudinal gradients in a watershed in Nepal. Land change patterns during this period were examined using information on land use derived from satellite images from 1976, 1990 and 2000. During the 24-year period from 1976 to 2000 agricultural land use increased by 35% at a cost of loss of forestland. Agricultural expansion was most conspicuous at higher elevations (1150-2000-m). About 36%, 18% and 6% of forestland was converted into agricultural activities from higher, middle and lower elevations respectively in the period from 1990 to 2000. Spatial distribution of living standard parameters, including farm family income and, food availability obtained from family surveys, shows a decreasing trend as the elevation increases whereas percentage of food bought shows an increasing trend. In this way it was found that, lost forest areas were smaller when located around high-income areas with good quality agricultural land and near an administrative centre as compared to areas located around low-income areas with low quality agricultural land and far from an administrative centre. Additionally, a regression model is constructed, to link the socioeconomic variables with the conversion of forestland into agricultural activities, breaking the study area into smaller zones. The spatial trajectories of these zones are then contrasted, paying particular attention to the socioeconomic conditions and institutional arrangements governing access to land resources. The study finds that while overall land change patterns in the region are largely explained by elevation and the socioeconomic conditions of people living adjacent to the forestland, more specifically, in sub-regional areas, trajectories reflect the signatures of institutions governing access to land. As sustainability of the watershed is dependent on forests, continued depletion of forest resources will result in poor economic returns from agriculture for local people together with loss of ecosystem services.