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Modeling the timber supply impact of introducing weevil-resistant spruce in British Columbia with cellular automata

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  • Schwab, Olaf
  • Maness, Thomas
  • Bull, Gary
  • Welham, Clive
  • Seely, Brad
  • Blanco, Juan

Abstract

Assessing the impacts of cumulative, non-lethal damages to forests poses a particular challenge to forest management planning since cumulative merchantable volume losses are not known until the time of harvest. This paper introduces a model that scales stand-level processes to their large-scale implications by combining elements of growth and yield modeling, insect infestation modeling, and large-scale spatial harvest simulation. The model is described and tested using the proposed large-scale introduction of weevil-resistant spruce in British Columbia, Canada as a case study. While spruce weevil damages were found to be significant, only a relatively small percentage of losses can be avoided by planting resistant stock. The model introduced in this paper can serve as an important decision support tool for policy makers and researchers in assessing the large-scale effects of proposed policy and management interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Schwab, Olaf & Maness, Thomas & Bull, Gary & Welham, Clive & Seely, Brad & Blanco, Juan, 2011. "Modeling the timber supply impact of introducing weevil-resistant spruce in British Columbia with cellular automata," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 61-68, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:13:y:2011:i:1:p:61-68
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brainard, Julii & Lovett, Andrew & Bateman, Ian, 2006. "Sensitivity analysis in calculating the social value of carbon sequestered in British grown Sitka spruce," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 201-228, December.
    2. David Pearce, 2003. "The Social Cost of Carbon and its Policy Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(3), pages 362-384.
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