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Long-term effects of eliminating illegal logging on the world forest industries, trade, and inventory

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Ruhong
  • Buongiorno, J.
  • Turner, J.A.
  • Zhu, S.
  • Prestemon, J.

Abstract

We assessed the impact on the world forest sector of a progressive elimination of illegal logging. The analysis compared predictions from 2007 to 2020, with and without a gradual reduction of illegally logged industrial roundwood from 2007 to 2011. A large part of the curtailment of timber supply due to the stoppage of illegal logging would be compensated by increased legal production incited by higher prices. As a result, without illegal logging the world annual production of industrial roundwood would decrease by no more than 1%, even though it would decrease by up to 8% in developing countries. World prices would rise by 1.5 to 3.5% for industrial roundwood and by 0.5 to 2% for processed products, depending on the assumption on illegal logging rates. World consumer expenditures for wood products and producer revenues would rise by 1 to 2% without illegal logging. World value added in forest industries would remain the same. However, the changes in consumer expenditures would be more than double the changes in producer revenues in countries dependent on illegally logged timber of domestic or foreign origin such as Indonesia and China. Symmetrically, changes in producer revenues would be almost twice the changes in consumer expenditures in countries with little illegal logging and efficient industries, such as Canada, Germany and the United States. Value added in forest industries would decrease most in countries with heavy illegal logging (12% in Indonesia and up to 9% in Brazil), and it would increase most in Germany, Canada (4%), and the United States (2%). Without illegal logging, the world forest inventory would increase slightly, as the increase in developing countries would more than compensate the decrease in developed countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Ruhong & Buongiorno, J. & Turner, J.A. & Zhu, S. & Prestemon, J., 2008. "Long-term effects of eliminating illegal logging on the world forest industries, trade, and inventory," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(7-8), pages 480-490, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:10:y:2008:i:7-8:p:480-490
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Riviere & Sylvain Caurla & Philippe Delacote, 2020. "Evolving Integrated Models From Narrower Economic Tools : the Example of Forest Sector Models," Post-Print hal-02512330, HAL.
    2. Fernando Reboredo, 2013. "Socio-economic, environmental, and governance impacts of illegal logging," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 295-304, June.
    3. Prestemon, Jeffrey P., 2015. "The impacts of the Lacey Act Amendment of 2008 on U.S. hardwood lumber and hardwood plywood imports," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 31-44.
    4. Beckman, Jayson & Sands, Ronald D. & Riddle, Anne A. & Lee, Tani & Walloga, Jacob M., 2017. "International Trade and Deforestation: Potential Policy Effects via a Global Economic Model," Economic Research Report 262185, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Jiping Sheng & Xiaoge Gao & Zhao Zhang, 2023. "Sustainability of Forest Development in China from the Perspective of the Illegal Logging Trade," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Latta, Gregory S. & Sjølie, Hanne K. & Solberg, Birger, 2013. "A review of recent developments and applications of partial equilibrium models of the forest sector," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 350-360.
    7. Terheggen, Anne, 2010. "The new kid in the forest: the impact of China's resource demand on Gabon's tropical timber value chain," MPRA Paper 37982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Sun, Changyou, 2014. "Recent growth in China's roundwood import and its global implications," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 43-53.

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