IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finsta/v39y2018icp79-89.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An empirical study of bank stress testing for auto loans

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Deming
  • Fang, Ming
  • Wang, Qing

Abstract

We present an empirical study of stress testing for portfolios of auto loans. We find that loans aged five years or more have significantly higher default probabilities. This finding raises concerns about the increasing maturity of auto loans in recent years. A challenge in stress testing is the instability of the estimated coefficient of macroeconomic variables, which raises questions on the reliability of stress test results. For this reason, it is important for model developers to perform sensitivity analyses and make conservative adjustment to minimize model risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Deming & Fang, Ming & Wang, Qing, 2018. "An empirical study of bank stress testing for auto loans," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 79-89.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:39:y:2018:i:c:p:79-89
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2018.09.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308918303139
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfs.2018.09.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    2. Darrell Duffie & Andreas Eckner & Guillaume Horel & Leandro Saita, 2009. "Frailty Correlated Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2089-2123, October.
    3. Covas, Francisco B. & Rump, Ben & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2014. "Stress-testing US bank holding companies: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 691-713.
    4. Acharya, Viral & Engle, Robert & Pierret, Diane, 2014. "Testing macroprudential stress tests: The risk of regulatory risk weights," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 36-53.
    5. Luca Guerrieri & Michelle Welch, 2012. "Can macro variables used in stress testing forecast the performance of banks?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Mannering, Fred & Winston, Clifford & Starkey, William, 2002. "An exploratory analysis of automobile leasing by US households," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 154-176, July.
    7. Acharya, Viral V. & Berger, Allen N. & Roman, Raluca A., 2018. "Lending implications of U.S. bank stress tests: Costs or benefits?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 58-90.
    8. Erik Heitfield & Tarun Sabarwal, 2004. "What Drives Default and Prepayment on Subprime Auto Loans?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 457-477, December.
    9. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 2014. "Stress-testing macro stress testing: Does it live up to expectations?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 3-15.
    10. Andreas Lehnert & Beverly Hirtle, 2015. "Supervisory Stress Tests," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 339-355, December.
    11. Petrella, Giovanni & Resti, Andrea, 2013. "Supervisors as information producers: Do stress tests reduce bank opaqueness?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5406-5420.
    12. Lazzari, Valter & Vena, Luigi & Venegoni, Andrea, 2017. "Stress tests and asset quality reviews of banks: A policy announcement tool," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 86-98.
    13. Schuermann, Til, 2014. "Stress testing banks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 717-728.
    14. Flannery, Mark & Hirtle, Beverly & Kovner, Anna, 2017. "Evaluating the information in the federal reserve stress tests," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-18.
    15. Ana M. Aizcorbe & Martha Starr-McCluer, "undated". "Vehicle Ownership, Vehicle Acquisitions, and the Growth of Auto Leasing: Evidence from Consumer Surveys," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
    16. Ana M. Aizcorbe & James T. Hickman & Martha Starr-McCluer, 2003. "The replacement demand for motor vehicles: evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska & Krzysztof Jackowicz & Maciej Karczmarczyk, 2021. "“The Crooked Smile of TCR†: Banks’ Solvency and Restructuring Costs in the European Banking Industry," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, September.
    2. Fazlollah Soleymani & Houman Masnavi & Stanford Shateyi, 2020. "Classifying a Lending Portfolio of Loans with Dynamic Updates via a Machine Learning Technique," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nguyen, Thach Vu Hong & Ahmed, Shamim & Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Onali, Enrico, 2020. "Do stress tests affect bank liquidity creation?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Acharya, Viral V. & Berger, Allen N. & Roman, Raluca A., 2018. "Lending implications of U.S. bank stress tests: Costs or benefits?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 58-90.
    3. Durrani, Agha & Ongena, Steven & Ponte Marques, Aurea, 2024. "Decoding market reactions: The certification role of EU-wide stress tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Sahin, Cenkhan & de Haan, Jakob & Neretina, Ekaterina, 2020. "Banking stress test effects on returns and risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Kolari, James W. & López-Iturriaga, Félix J. & Sanz, Ivan Pastor, 2019. "Predicting European bank stress tests: Survival of the fittest," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 44-57.
    6. Luu, Hiep Ngoc & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The Impact of Supervisory Stress Tests on Bank Ex-Ante Risk-Taking Behaviour: Empirical Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7986np0ssj9fu9fg833t5dehhf is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kasim Ahmed & Giovanni Calice, 2023. "The effects of supervisory stress testing on bank lending: examining large UK banks," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 228-247, June.
    9. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Vincent Touzé, 2014. "Comment lutter contre la fragmentation du système bancaire de la zone euro ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 171-219.
    10. Niepmann, Friederike & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2024. "Modeling your stress away," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7986np0ssj9fu9fg833t5dehhf is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Durrani, Agha & Ongena, Steven & Ponte Marques, Aurea, 2022. "The certification role of the EU-wide stress testing exercises in the stock market. What can we learn from the stress tests (2014-2021)?," Working Paper Series 2711, European Central Bank.
    13. Pacicco, Fausto & Vena, Luigi & Venegoni, Andrea, 2020. "Communication and financial supervision: How does disclosure affect market stability?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-15.
    14. Kund, Arndt-Gerrit & Rugilo, Daniel, 2023. "Does IFRS 9 increase banks’ resilience?," Working Paper Series 2792, European Central Bank.
    15. Kok, Christoffer & Müller, Carola & Ongena, Steven & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2023. "The disciplining effect of supervisory scrutiny in the EU-wide stress test," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    16. Brummelhuis, Raymond & Luo, Zhongmin, 2019. "Bank Net Interest Margin Forecasting and Capital Adequacy Stress Testing by Machine Learning Techniques," MPRA Paper 94779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Matthew Pritsker, 2017. "Choosing Stress Scenarios for Systemic Risk Through Dimension Reduction," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 17-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    18. Busch, Ramona & Koziol, Philipp & Mitrovic, Marc, 2018. "Many a little makes a mickle: Stress testing small and medium-sized German banks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 237-253.
    19. Braouezec, Yann & Wagalath, Lakshithe, 2019. "Strategic fire-sales and price-mediated contagion in the banking system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(3), pages 1180-1197.
    20. Abad, Pilar & Robles, M.-Dolores & Alonso Orts, Carlos, 2023. "Stress testing programs and credit risk opacity of banks: USA vs Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    21. Maria Rosa Borges & José Zorro Mendes & André Pereira, 2019. "The Value of Information: The Impact of European Union Bank Stress Tests on Stock Markets," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(4), pages 429-444, November.
    22. Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles, 2017. "Has the uniformity of banking regulation within the European Union restricted rather than encouraged sectoral development?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 48-65.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Auto loan defaults; Stress testing; Model instability; Loan age; Macroeconomic variables; Used car prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:39:y:2018:i:c:p:79-89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.