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Supervisory Stress Tests

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Lehnert

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551)

  • Beverly Hirtle

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY 10045)

Abstract

We describe the background, design choices, and particular details of stress tests used as part of an overall supervisory regime, that is, their formal integration into the ongoing prudential supervision of banks and other large financial institutions. We then describe how the US Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) and Dodd-Frank Act stress testing (DFAST) regime is designed and what that means for the macroprudential versus microprudential nature of US supervisory exercises. We argue that routine stress tests have the potential to substantially change the nature of the supervisory process. We also argue that a great deal depends on the philosophy underpinning modeling decisions, which has not received as much attention as scenario design, disclosure, or other stress test design choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Lehnert & Beverly Hirtle, 2015. "Supervisory Stress Tests," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 339-355, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:refeco:v:7:y:2015:p:339-355
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-111914-042040
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    1. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott Fung & Robert Loveland, 2020. "When do informed traders acquire and trade on informational advantage? Evidence from Federal Reserve stress tests," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1459-1485, October.
    2. Hale, Galina & Lopez, Jose A., 2019. "Monitoring banking system connectedness with big data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 203-220.
    3. David M. Arseneau, 2020. "How Would U.S. Banks Fare in a Negative Interest Rate Environment?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 269-308, October.
    4. Luu, Hiep Ngoc & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The Impact of Supervisory Stress Tests on Bank Ex-Ante Risk-Taking Behaviour: Empirical Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Arnould, Guillaume & Dehmej, Salim, 2016. "Is the European banking system robust? An evaluation through the lens of the ECB׳s Comprehensive Assessment," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 126-144.
    6. Peterson K. Ozili, 2020. "Does competence of central bank governors influence financial stability?," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, December.
    7. Dissem, Sonia & Lobez, Frederic, 2020. "Correlation between the 2014 EU-wide stress tests and the market-based measures of systemic risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Rhys M. Bidder & Raffaella Giacomini & Andrew McKenna, 2016. "Stress Testing with Misspecified Models," Working Paper Series 2016-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Natalia Tente & Natalja Von Westernhagen & Ulf Slopek, 2019. "M‐PRESS‐CreditRisk: Microprudential and Macroprudential Capital Requirements for Credit Risk under Systemic Stress," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(7), pages 1923-1961, October.
    10. Calem, Paul & Correa, Ricardo & Lee, Seung Jung, 2020. "Prudential policies and their impact on credit in the United States," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    11. Flannery, Mark & Hirtle, Beverly & Kovner, Anna, 2017. "Evaluating the information in the federal reserve stress tests," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-18.
    12. Fernandes, Marcelo & Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo, 2020. "March madness in Wall Street: (What) does the market learn from stress tests?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    13. Christoph Aymanns & J. Doyne Farmer & Alissa M. Keinniejenhuis & Thom Wetzer, 2017. "Models of Financial Stability and their Application in Stress Tests," Working Papers on Finance 1805, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    14. Robert Clark & Shaoteng Li, 2022. "The Strategic Response of Banks to Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from Mortgage Stress Tests in Canada [LIBOR manipulation?]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 187-216.
    15. Ivan Marinovic & Martin Szydlowski, 2019. "Monitor Reputation and Transparency," 2019 Meeting Papers 125, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Cyrus Aghamolla & Pinar Karaca-Mandic & Xuelin Li & Richard T. Thakor, 2024. "Merchants of Death: The Effect of Credit Supply Shocks on Hospital Outcomes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(11), pages 3623-3668, November.
    17. Gu, Jiadong, 2023. "Optimal stress tests and liquidation cost," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Wu, Deming & Fang, Ming & Wang, Qing, 2018. "An empirical study of bank stress testing for auto loans," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 79-89.
    19. Thomas L. Hogan & Neil R. Meredith, 2016. "Risk and risk-based capital of U.S. bank holding companies," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 86-112, February.
    20. Nguyen, Thach Vu Hong & Ahmed, Shamim & Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Onali, Enrico, 2020. "Do stress tests affect bank liquidity creation?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    21. Carboni, Marika & Fiordelisi, Franco & Ricci, Ornella & Lopes, Francesco Saverio Stentella, 2017. "Surprised or not surprised? The investors’ reaction to the comprehensive assessment preceding the launch of the banking union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 122-132.
    22. Braouezec, Yann & Wagalath, Lakshithe, 2019. "Strategic fire-sales and price-mediated contagion in the banking system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(3), pages 1180-1197.
    23. Mitchell Berlin, 2015. "Disclosure of stress test results," Working Papers 15-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank capital; bank stress testing; bank supervision;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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