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Evolution of historical prices in momentum investing

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  • Chen, Li-Wen
  • Yu, Hsin-Yi
  • Wang, Wen-Kai

Abstract

We find that the acceleration and deceleration patterns of historical prices are predictive of future expected returns in momentum investing in the U.S. equity market from 1962 to 2014. Winners with accelerated historical price increases deliver higher future expected returns and losers with accelerated historical price decreases perform more poorly in the future. Hence, the profit from buying past accelerated winners and shorting past accelerated losers is significantly higher than the momentum profit by 51.47%. Such profit cannot be subsumed by certain characteristics that have been considered to explain momentum. Possible explanations for our results include extrapolative bias and overreaction.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Li-Wen & Yu, Hsin-Yi & Wang, Wen-Kai, 2018. "Evolution of historical prices in momentum investing," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-135.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:37:y:2018:i:c:p:120-135
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2017.07.001
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    2. Ramzi Boussaidi & Majed Ibrahim AlSaggaf, 2024. "Post-Earnings Announcement Drift, Momentum, and Contrarian Strategies in the Saudi Stock Market: Risk Explanation vs. Behavioral Explanation," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 13622-13653, September.
    3. Sherif, Mohamed & Chen, Jiaqi, 2019. "The quality of governance and momentum profits: International evidence," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(5).

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