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Banks’ portfolio of government debt and sovereign risk: From safe havens to stormy seas

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  • Afonso, António
  • Alves, José
  • Monteiro, Sofia

Abstract

We analyse domestic, foreign, and central banks holdings of public debt for 31 countries for the period of 1989–2022, applying panel regressions and quantile analysis. We conclude that contrarily to what we observe before 2010, we found that after 2010 an increase in sovereign risk raises the share of domestic banks’ portfolio of public debt and reduces the percentage holdings in the case of central banks. Better sovereign rations also increase (decrease) the share of commercial (central) banks holdings. Furthermore, the effects of an increment in the risk for domestic investors have increased since the 2010 financial crisis.11We thank the Editor and two anonymous referees for the useful comments. We thank João Santos Silva for clarifications on the Stata quantile procedure. This work was supported by the FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) [grant number UIDB/05069/2020]. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the authors’ employers. Any remaining errors are the authors’ sole responsibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, António & Alves, José & Monteiro, Sofia, 2024. "Banks’ portfolio of government debt and sovereign risk: From safe havens to stormy seas," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:70:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324013060
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106277
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking; Sovereign debt; Sovereign risk; Financial crisis; Ratings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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