IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v70y2024ics1544612324012996.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamics of persistence in Brazilian economic uncertainty, expectation, and confidence indexes

Author

Listed:
  • de Oliveira Lima Cagliari Marques, Guilherme
  • Gonzalez de Freitas Pinto, Mateus

Abstract

This study examines the persistence dynamics in Brazilian economic uncertainty, confidence, and expectation indexes, in both business and consumer sides of the economy. Using rolling window estimations of the fractional integration parameter, we assess how economic turbulence influences the persistence of these indexes. We find that economic uncertainty in Brazil is non-stationary but mean-reverting, with its persistence only transitorily affected by economic and political crises. Interestingly, confidence and expectation indexes displayed hysteretic behavior, with multiple persistence regimes linked to crises. These results may be informative for policymakers about the perceptions of the public and businessmen to economic shocks and crises.

Suggested Citation

  • de Oliveira Lima Cagliari Marques, Guilherme & Gonzalez de Freitas Pinto, Mateus, 2024. "Dynamics of persistence in Brazilian economic uncertainty, expectation, and confidence indexes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:70:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324012996
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106270
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612324012996
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106270?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:70:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324012996. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.