IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v63y2024ics154461232400401x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decomposing risk spillover effect in international stock market: A novel intertemporal network topology approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Xu
  • Lv, Zhiyu
  • Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr
  • Rauf, Abdul
  • Liu, Jiawen

Abstract

This paper investigates the intertemporal risk effects in global stock markets using a novel network topology based on relative importance analysis. The rolling time window approach identifies dynamic and asymmetric risk spillovers. The results reveal complex and asymmetric intertemporal risk spillovers in international stock markets. Europe and America are the main risk transmitters. Countries in the forecast period, receive more risk from the international stock market. Major events that generate stock market turbulence will dramatically increase intertemporal risk spillovers. These findings have implications for risk management and the stability of the international stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Xu & Lv, Zhiyu & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Rauf, Abdul & Liu, Jiawen, 2024. "Decomposing risk spillover effect in international stock market: A novel intertemporal network topology approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:63:y:2024:i:c:s154461232400401x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105371
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S154461232400401X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105371?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    2. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Karim, Sitara, 2024. "Measuring the G20 stock market return transmission mechanism: Evidence from the R2 connectedness approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Sixu Mu & Guangdong Huang & Ping Li & Yun Hou & Filippo Cacace, 2022. "A Study on Volatility Spillovers among International Stock Markets during the Russia-Ukraine Conflict," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-8, October.
    4. Mirza, Nawazish & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Ha Nguyen, Thi Thu & Arfaoui, Nadia & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2023. "Are sustainable investments interdependent? The international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Xie, Qiwei & Cheng, Lu & Liu, Ranran & Zheng, Xiaolong & Li, Jingyu, 2023. "COVID-19 and risk spillovers of China's major financial markets: Evidence from time-varying variance decomposition and wavelet coherence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Luo, Changqing & Liu, Lan & Wang, Da, 2021. "Multiscale financial risk contagion between international stock markets: Evidence from EMD-Copula-CoVaR analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Shafiullah, Muhammad & Senthilkumar, Arunachalam & Lucey, Brian M. & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2024. "Deciphering asymmetric spillovers in US industries: Insights from higher-order moments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    8. Su, Xianfang, 2020. "Measuring extreme risk spillovers across international stock markets: A quantile variance decomposition analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Caliskan Terzioglu, Hande & Kilic, Yunus & Bugan, Mehmet Fatih & Dibooglu, Sel, 2024. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk: Evidence from global stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Risk spillovers between oil and stock markets: A VAR for VaR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 524-535.
    11. Baumöhl, Eduard & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2019. "Quantile coherency networks of international stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-129.
    12. Arfaoui, Nadia & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Maherzi, Teja & Kayani, Umar Nawaz, 2024. "Can green investment funds hedge climate risk?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Liu, Xueyong & Jiang, Cheng, 2020. "The dynamic volatility transmission in the multiscale spillover network of the international stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    14. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    15. Xu Zhang & Xian Yang & Jianping Li & Jun Hao, 2023. "Contemporaneous and noncontemporaneous idiosyncratic risk spillovers in commodity futures markets: A novel network topology approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 705-733, June.
    16. Zhang, Xu & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Du, Yuting & Rauf, Abdul, 2024. "Examining the bidirectional ripple effects in the NFT markets: Risky center or hedging center?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    17. Lu, Xinjie & Zeng, Qing & Zhong, Juandan & Zhu, Bo, 2024. "International stock market volatility: A global tail risk sight," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    18. Wang, Jie & Liu, Tangyong & Pan, Na, 2023. "Analyzing quantile spillover effects among international financial markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Peng, Zhe & Bouri, Elie, 2021. "Asymmetric volatility spillover among Chinese sectors during COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    20. Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
    21. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Anwer, Zaheer & Khan, Ashraf & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2024. "Do market conditions affect interconnectedness pattern of socially responsible equities?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 611-630.
    22. Jin, Xiaoye, 2018. "Downside and upside risk spillovers from China to Asian stock markets: A CoVaR-copula approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 202-212.
    23. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arfaoui, Nadia, 2023. "Exploring downside risk dependence across energy markets: Electricity, conventional energy, carbon, and clean energy during episodes of market crises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    24. Wei, Zhengyuan & He, Qingxia & Zhou, Qili & Wang, Ge, 2023. "Measuring dependence structure and extreme risk spillovers in stock markets: An APARCH-EVT-DMC approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 632(P1).
    25. Do, A. & Powell, R. & Yong, J. & Singh, A., 2020. "Time-varying asymmetric volatility spillover between global markets and China’s A, B and H-shares using EGARCH and DCC-EGARCH models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    26. Mbarki, Imen & Omri, Abdelwahed & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2022. "From sentiment to systemic risk: Information transmission in Asia-Pacific stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    27. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2016. "Downside and upside risk spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-96.
    28. Osnat Israeli, 2007. "A Shapley-based decomposition of the R-Square of a linear regression," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 5(2), pages 199-212, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Billah, Mabruk & Kapar, Burcu & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2024. "Quantifying the volatility spillover dynamics between financial stress and US financial sectors: Evidence from QVAR connectedness," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    2. Zargar, Faisal Nazir & Mohnot, Rajesh & Hamouda, Foued & Arfaoui, Nadia, 2024. "Risk dynamics in energy transition: Evaluating downside risks and interconnectedness in fossil fuel and renewable energy markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Senthilkumar, Arunachalam & Arfaoui, Nadia & Mohnot, Rajesh, 2024. "Mapping fear in financial markets: Insights from dynamic networks and centrality measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Senthilkumar, Arunachalam & Arfaoui, Nadia & Mohnot, Rajesh, 2024. "Mapping fear in financial markets: Insights from dynamic networks and centrality measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    2. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Anwer, Zaheer & Khan, Ashraf & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2024. "Do market conditions affect interconnectedness pattern of socially responsible equities?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 611-630.
    3. Hanif, Waqas & Hadhri, Sinda & El Khoury, Rim, 2024. "Quantile spillovers and connectedness between oil shocks and stock markets of the largest oil producers and consumers," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    4. Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Billah, Mabruk & Kapar, Burcu & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2024. "Quantifying the volatility spillover dynamics between financial stress and US financial sectors: Evidence from QVAR connectedness," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    5. Shafiullah, Muhammad & Senthilkumar, Arunachalam & Lucey, Brian M. & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2024. "Deciphering asymmetric spillovers in US industries: Insights from higher-order moments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    6. Bouri, Elie & Harb, Etienne, 2022. "The size of good and bad volatility shocks does matter for spillovers," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Mahdi Ghaemi Asl & Oluwasegun B. Adekoya & Muhammad Mahdi Rashidi, 2023. "Quantiles dependence and dynamic connectedness between distributed ledger technology and sectoral stocks: enhancing the supply chain and investment decisions with digital platforms," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 327(1), pages 435-464, August.
    8. Shahzad, Umer & Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Is there any market state-dependent contribution from Blockchain-enabled solutions to ESG investments? Evidence from conventional and Islamic ESG stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 139-154.
    9. Zargar, Faisal Nazir & Mohnot, Rajesh & Hamouda, Foued & Arfaoui, Nadia, 2024. "Risk dynamics in energy transition: Evaluating downside risks and interconnectedness in fossil fuel and renewable energy markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham & Goh, Mark & Zou, Huiwen, 2022. "Risk spillovers and time-varying links between international oil and China’s commodity futures markets: Fresh evidence from the higher-order moments," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    11. Karim, Sitara & Shafiullah, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2024. "When one domino falls, others follow: A machine learning analysis of extreme risk spillovers in developed stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    12. Cui, Jinxin & Goh, Mark & Li, Binlin & Zou, Huiwen, 2021. "Dynamic dependence and risk connectedness among oil and stock markets: New evidence from time-frequency domain perspectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    13. Ren, Yinghua & Zhao, Wanru & You, Wanhai & Zhu, Huiming, 2022. "Multiscale features of extreme risk spillover networks among global stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Zhongzheng, Wang, 2023. "Extreme risk transmission mechanism between oil, green bonds and new energy vehicles," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 2(3).
    15. Iqbal, Najaf & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Suleman, Muhammed Tahir, 2022. "Quantifying the asymmetric spillovers in sustainable investments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Liu, Zhenhua & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhai, Pengxiang & Wu, Shan & Ding, Zhihua & Zhou, Yuqin, 2021. "Tail risk connectedness in the oil-stock nexus: Evidence from a novel quantile spillover approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Zhang, Hua & Chen, Jinyu & Shao, Liuguo, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers between energy and stock markets and their implications in the context of COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. Yang, Ming-Yuan & Chen, Zhanghangjian & Liang, Zongzheng & Li, Sai-Ping, 2023. "Dynamic and asymmetric connectedness in the global “Carbon-Energy-Stock” system under shocks from exogenous events," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    19. Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Gabauer, David & Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha, 2024. "Sectoral uncertainty spillovers in emerging markets: A quantile time–frequency connectedness approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 121-139.
    20. Ouyang, Zisheng & Zhou, Xuewei & Lu, Min & Liu, Ke, 2024. "Imported financial risk in global stock markets: Evidence from the interconnected network," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:63:y:2024:i:c:s154461232400401x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.