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An affine term structure model with Fed chairs’ speeches

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  • Ko, Eunmi

Abstract

I analyze the impact of the sentiment expressed in speeches by Fed chairs on Treasury bond yields, using an affine term structure model. The speeches by Fed chairs are numerically evaluated to generate three sentiment factors: negative, neutral, and positive. The variance decomposition analysis indicates that sentiment factors account for a considerable portion of the variance in yield forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ko, Eunmi, 2024. "An affine term structure model with Fed chairs’ speeches," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:63:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324003660
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105336
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Eric Fischer & Rebecca McCaughrin & Saketh Prazad & Mark Vandergon, 2023. "Fed Transparency and Policy Expectation Errors: A Text Analysis Approach," Staff Reports 1081, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera, 2023. "The Voice of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(2), pages 548-584, February.
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    6. Coenen, Günter & Ehrmann, Michael & Gaballo, Gaetano & Hoffmann, Peter & Nakov, Anton & Nardelli, Stefano & Persson, Eric & Strasser, Georg H., 2017. "Communication of monetary policy in unconventional times," CFS Working Paper Series 578, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank communication; Sentiment analysis; Determination of interest rates; Financial markets and the macroeconomy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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