IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v62y2024ipbs1544612324002721.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Population aging and the dynamics of the skill income gap: An analysis of a multiple mediation effect

Author

Listed:
  • Chu, Yihe
  • Li, Yujia
  • Che, Ming

Abstract

This paper investigates how population aging influences the skill income gap via two pathways: the skill supply and skill-biased technical changes. Utilizing both simple and multiple mediating effects models for empirical analysis, this paper discovers that an increase in the old-age dependency ratio and a decrease in the child dependency ratio both elevate the relative supply of skilled labor and intensify skill-biased technical changes. These changes result in a dual effect: the augmented skilled labor supply reduces the skill income gap, whereas the enhanced skill-biased technical changes raise it. Among these two mechanisms, the impact of skill supply emerges as slightly more significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Chu, Yihe & Li, Yujia & Che, Ming, 2024. "Population aging and the dynamics of the skill income gap: An analysis of a multiple mediation effect," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:62:y:2024:i:pb:s1544612324002721
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105242
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612324002721
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105242?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Omoniyi B. Alimi & David C. Maré & Jacques Poot, 2018. "More Pensioners, Less Income Inequality? The Impact of Changing Age Composition on Inequality in Big Cities and Elsewhere," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Roger R. Stough & Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp & Uwe Blien (ed.), Modelling Aging and Migration Effects on Spatial Labor Markets, chapter 0, pages 133-159, Springer.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "The wrong kind of AI? Artificial intelligence and the future of labour demand," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 13(1), pages 25-35.
    3. Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei & Tsener, Inna, 2022. "Capital-skill complementarity and inequality: Twenty years after," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    4. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    5. Chen, Chaoran, 2020. "Capital-skill complementarity, sectoral labor productivity, and structural transformation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    6. Fernández, Manuel & Messina, Julián, 2018. "Skill premium, labor supply, and changes in the structure of wages in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 555-573.
    7. Sang-Wook Stanley Cho & Julián P. Díaz, 2019. "Skill premium divergence: the roles of trade, capital and demographics," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 67(1), pages 249-283, February.
    8. Yilmaz, Kuzey, 2018. "Quantity–quality trade-off of children and school finance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 188-203.
    9. Paula Prenzel & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Labor Force Aging and the Composition of Regional Human Capital," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 97(2), pages 140-163, March.
    10. Wei, Yu & Zhang, Jiahao & Bai, Lan & Wang, Yizhi, 2023. "Connectedness among El Niño-Southern Oscillation, carbon emission allowance, crude oil and renewable energy stock markets: Time- and frequency-domain evidence based on TVP-VAR model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 289-309.
    11. Martin Biewen & Andos Juhasz, 2012. "Understanding Rising Income Inequality in Germany, 1999/2000–2005/2006," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(4), pages 622-647, December.
    12. Laura M. ARGYS & Susan L. AVERETT, 2019. "The Effect of Family Size on Education: New Evidence from China's One-Child Policy," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 21-42, March.
    13. Elke Loichinger & Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, 2018. "Feminising the workforce in ageing East Asia? The potential of skilled female labour in four advanced economies," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 187-215, June.
    14. Xie, Mengmeng & Ding, Lin & Xia, Yan & Guo, Jianfeng & Pan, Jiaofeng & Wang, Huijuan, 2021. "Does artificial intelligence affect the pattern of skill demand? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 295-309.
    15. Deaton, Angus & Paxson, Christina, 1994. "Intertemporal Choice and Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 437-467, June.
    16. Aeggarchat Sirisankanan, 2022. "The impact of family size on child investment in Thailand: Revisiting with an alternative approach," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 411-431, December.
    17. Rainer Klump & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2007. "Factor Substitution and Factor-Augmenting Technical Progress in the United States: A Normalized Supply-Side System Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 183-192, February.
    18. Wang, Ailun & Hu, Shuo & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Can environmental regulation solve pollution problems? Theoretical model and empirical research based on the skill premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    19. Lee Ohanian & Musa Orak & Shihan Shen, 2023. "Revisiting Capital-Skill Complementarity, Inequality, and Labor Share," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 479-505, December.
    20. Haixin Zhang & Lili Ke & Donghong Ding, 2021. "The Effect of Chinese Population Aging on Income Inequality: Based on a Micro-Macro Multiregional Dynamic CGE Modelling Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(5), pages 1399-1419, April.
    21. Argys, Laura M. & Averett, Susan L., 2019. "The effect of family size on education: new evidence from China's one-child policy," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 21-42, March.
    22. T. Terry Cheung, 2023. "Schooling, Skill Demand, and Differential Fertility in the Process of Structural Transformation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 305-330, October.
    23. Joshua R. Goldstein & Ronald D. Lee, 2014. "How large are the effects of population aging on economic inequality?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 12(1), pages 193-209.
    24. Juzhong Zhuang, 2023. "Income and Wealth Inequality in Asia and the Pacific: Trends, Causes, and Policy Remedies," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 15-41, January.
    25. Bai, Lan & Wei, Yu & Zhang, Jiahao & Wang, Yizhi & Lucey, Brian M., 2023. "Diversification effects of China's carbon neutral bond on renewable energy stock markets: A minimum connectedness portfolio approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    26. Wang, Yizhi & Wei, Yu & Lucey, Brian M. & Su, Yang, 2023. "Return spillover analysis across central bank digital currency attention and cryptocurrency markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    27. Yao, Wenyun & Zhang, Yi & Ma, Jingwen & Cui, Guanghui, 2023. "Does environmental regulation affect capital-labor ratio of manufacturing enterprises: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    28. Zhi Luo & Guanghua Wan & Chen Wang & Xun Zhang, 2018. "Aging and inequality: The link and transmission mechanisms," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 885-903, August.
    29. Gitanjali Sen & Mitul Surana & Rakesh Basant, 2023. "To What Extent Does the Fertility Rate Explain the Education Gap?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-31, June.
    30. Zhiqiang Dong & Canqing Tang & Xiahai Wei, 2018. "Does population aging intensify income inequality? Evidence from China," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 66-77, January.
    31. Muro, Kazunobu, 2022. "Physical and human capital, fertility, and childcare services," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(4), pages 422-436.
    32. Perez-Laborda, Alejandro & Perez-Sebastian, Fidel, 2020. "Capital-skill complementarity and biased technical change across US sectors," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    33. Dou, Bin & Guo, SongLin & Chang, XiaoChen & Wang, Yong, 2023. "Corporate digital transformation and labor structure upgrading," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    34. Joyce Hsieh, 2023. "Population aging and wealth inequality," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4223-4252, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shaik, Muhammad Raees & Goh, Soo Khoon & Wong, Koi Nyen & Law, Chee Hong, 2024. "Does population aging coexist with income inequality in the long run? Evidence from selected Asia-Pacific countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    2. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yizhi & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ma, Zhenyu, 2023. "Alarming contagion effects: The dangerous ripple effect of extreme price spillovers across crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and agriculture futures markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Jean-Philippe Deranty & Thomas Corbin, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence and work: a critical review of recent research from the social sciences," Papers 2204.00419, arXiv.org.
    4. Huang, Wenyang & Zhao, Jianyu & Wang, Xiaokang, 2024. "Model-driven multimodal LSTM-CNN for unbiased structural forecasting of European Union allowances open-high-low-close price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Maya Eden & Paul Gaggl, 2018. "On the Welfare Implications of Automation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 15-43, July.
    6. Luis Ayala & Javier Martín-Román & Juan Vicente, 2023. "What Contributes to Rising Inequality in Large Cities?," LIS Working papers 850, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    7. M. Battisti & M. Del Gatto & A. F. Gravina & C. F. Parmeter, 2021. "Robots versus labor skills: a complementarity/substitutability analysis," Working Paper CRENoS 202104, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    8. Jeffrey G. Woods, 2017. "The Effect of Technological Change on the Task Structure of Jobs and the Capital-Labor Trade-Off in US Production," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 8(2), pages 739-757, June.
    9. Gornig, Martin & Goebel, Jan, 2018. "Deindustrialisation and the polarisation of household incomes: The example of urban agglomerations in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 790-806.
    10. Hanewald, Katja & Jia, Ruo & Liu, Zining, 2021. "Why is inequality higher among the old? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. Usabiaga, Carlos & Núñez, Fernando & Arendt, Lukasz & Gałecka-Burdziak, Ewa & Pater, Robert, 2022. "Skill requirements and labour polarisation: An association analysis based on Polish online job offers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    12. Marcel Steffen Eckardt, 2022. "Minimum wages in an automating economy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(1), pages 58-91, February.
    13. Castex, Gonzalo & (Stanley) Cho, Sang-Wook & Dechter, Evgenia, 2022. "The decline in capital-skill complementarity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Xie, Mengmeng & Ding, Lin & Xia, Yan & Guo, Jianfeng & Pan, Jiaofeng & Wang, Huijuan, 2021. "Does artificial intelligence affect the pattern of skill demand? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 295-309.
    15. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Connectivity and spillover during crises: Highlighting the prominent and growing role of green energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Kaat Van Hoyweghen & Janne Bemelmans & Hendrik Feyaerts & Goedele Van den Broeck & Miet Maertens, 2023. "Small Family, Happy Family? Fertility Preferences and the Quantity–Quality Trade-Off in Sub-Saharan Africa," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-35, December.
    17. Antón, José-Ignacio & Fernández-Macías, Enrique & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2020. "Does Robotization Affect Job Quality? Evidence from European Regional Labour Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 13975, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Julian Messina & Joana Silva, 2018. "Wage Inequality in Latin America," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28682.
    19. Lin, Siyuan & Argys, Laura M. & Averett, Susan L., 2023. "Exposure to the One-Child Policy and Fertility among Chinese Immigrants to the US," IZA Discussion Papers 16329, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Nazareno, Luísa & Schiff, Daniel S., 2021. "The impact of automation and artificial intelligence on worker well-being," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:62:y:2024:i:pb:s1544612324002721. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.