IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v59y2024ics1544612323011248.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do global and local economic policy uncertainties matter for systemic risk in the international banking system

Author

Listed:
  • Deng, Yuanyue
  • Li, Sijing

Abstract

Using panel data from 60 countries spanning from January 2006 to December 2021, we investigate how economic policy uncertainties (EPUs) affect two subcomponents of systemic risk (systemic linkage and individual risk), and differentiate the influences resulting from global and local EPU shocks. Our findings demonstrate that increased global shocks result in higher systemic linkages, while domestic uncertainties significantly contribute to individual risks. Cross-border bank loans and non-performing loans serve as the channels through which EPUs induce cascading effects. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis reveals the roles of financial openness and financial development in shaping the EPUs–systemic risk nexus.

Suggested Citation

  • Deng, Yuanyue & Li, Sijing, 2024. "Do global and local economic policy uncertainties matter for systemic risk in the international banking system," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:59:y:2024:i:c:s1544612323011248
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104752
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323011248
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104752?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. He, Wenjia & He, Wenjing & Xu, Dandan & Yue, Pengpeng, 2023. "Economic volatility, banks’ risk accumulation and systemic risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Tongurai, Jittima, 2016. "Financial markets development, business cycles, and bank risk in South America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 472-484.
    3. Paltalidis, Nikos & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kizys, Renatas & Koutelidakis, Yiannis, 2015. "Transmission channels of systemic risk and contagion in the European financial network," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S1), pages 36-52.
    4. Meuleman, Elien & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2020. "Macroprudential policy and bank systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    5. Nguyen, Thanh Cong, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Does bank regulation and supervision matter in major European economies?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Ahmad, Ghufran & Ashraf, Dawood, 2022. "Systemic risk, Islamic banks, and the COVID-19 pandemic: An empirical investigation," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    7. Kanno, Masayasu, 2015. "Assessing systemic risk using interbank exposures in the global banking system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 105-130.
    8. Jeffrey Ng & Walid Saffar & Janus Jian Zhang, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and loan loss provisions in the banking industry," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 726-777, June.
    9. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Giudici, Paolo & Hashem, Shatha Qamhieh, 2021. "Network VAR models to measure financial contagion," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    10. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    11. Mr. Philip R. Lane & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2017. "International Financial Integration in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2017/115, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mayordomo, Sergio & Rodriguez-Moreno, Maria & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2014. "Derivatives holdings and systemic risk in the U.S. banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 84-104.
    13. Bordo, Michael D. & Duca, John V. & Koch, Christoffer, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 90-106.
    14. Karadima, Maria & Louri, Helen, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and non-performing loans: The moderating role of bank concentration," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    15. Demirguc-Kent, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1998. "Financial liberalization and financial fragility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1917, The World Bank.
    16. Feng-Wen Chen & Yuan Feng & Wei Wang, 2018. "Impacts of Financial Inclusion on Non-Performing Loans of Commercial Banks: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-28, August.
    17. Balli, Faruk & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Mudassar, Hasan & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Cross-country determinants of economic policy uncertainty spillovers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 179-183.
    18. Wellalage, Nirosha Hewa & Fernandez, Viviana & Bui, Trang, 2023. "Immigration and entrepreneurship: Is there a uniform relationship across countries?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 270-285.
    19. Fang, Yi & Wang, Yanru & Wang, Qi & Zhao, Yang, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A perspective of risk decomposition," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Hu, Shiwei & Gong, Di, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, prudential regulation and bank lending," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 373-378.
    21. Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Ozili, Peterson, 2021. "Loan loss provisioning of US banks: Economic policy uncertainty and discretionary behavior," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 923-935.
    22. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    23. Tecles, Patricia Langsch & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2010. "Determinants of bank efficiency: The case of Brazil," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(3), pages 1587-1598, December.
    24. Tonzer, Lena, 2015. "Cross-border interbank networks, banking risk and contagion," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 19-32.
    25. Maarten van Oordt & Chen Zhou, 2019. "Systemic risk and bank business models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 365-384, April.
    26. Keyi Lan & Sichao Ma & Yuchao Peng & Fanzhi Wang, 2022. "Blessing in Disguise: Policy Uncertainty and Bank Systemic Risk," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(15), pages 4271-4285, December.
    27. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Tarazi, Amine, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    28. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2015. "What is the major determinant of cross-border banking flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 137-147.
    29. Zhang, Xiaoming & Liang, Qian & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "How does central bank transparency affect systemic risk? Evidence from developed and developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 101-115.
    30. Biswas, Sonny & Zhai, Wei, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cross-border lending," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    31. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Affandi, Yoga, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and financial stability–Is there a relation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1018-1029.
    32. Le, Thai-Ha & Bui, Manh-Tien & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2022. "Economic and social impacts of conflict: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    33. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    34. Yuan, Mengyi & Zhang, Lin & Lian, Yonghui, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk of commercial banks: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 587-605.
    35. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Hsu, Yu-Ling, 2017. "Peer bank behavior, economic policy uncertainty, and leverage decision of financial institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 79-91.
    36. Hoang, Khanh & Nguyen, Cuong & Zhang, Hailiang, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate diversification?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 254-269.
    37. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem & Shen, Yinjie, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and banks’ loan pricing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    38. Wu, Ji & Chen, Limei & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Diversification, efficiency and risk of banks: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lucchetta, Marcella, 2024. "International aggregate risk: Effects on financial stability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    2. Su, Chi-Wei & Yang, Shengyao & Ren, Yi-Shuai, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and company stock prices: Empirical evidence from blockchain companies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dang, Van Dan & Nguyen, Hoang Chung, 2022. "Bank profitability under uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-134.
    2. Fang, Yi & Wang, Yanru & Wang, Qi & Zhao, Yang, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A perspective of risk decomposition," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Shahab, Yasir & Wang, Peng, 2023. "Geopolitical, economic uncertainty and bank risk: Do CEO power and board strength matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Deng, Wei & Gao, Lei & Xing, Fei & Yang, Ming, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank deposits, and liability structure," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    5. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Tarazi, Amine, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Size, capital, and liquidity matter," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 102-118.
    7. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Tarazi, Amine, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    8. Gamze Ozturk Danisman & Amine Tarazi, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability," Working Papers hal-03259298, HAL.
    9. Nguyen, Thanh Cong, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    10. Zeqiraj, Veton & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "Economic uncertainty, public debt and non-performing loans in the Eurozone: Three systemic crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    11. Aamir Aijaz Syed & Assad Ullah & Muhammad Abdul Kamal, 2024. "Does economic policy uncertainty impedes financial inclusion in BRICS economies: the mediating role of quality of governance," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-24, February.
    12. Duan, Yuejiao & Fan, Xiaoyun & Wang, Yu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A cross-country analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Nguyen, Thanh Cong, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Does bank regulation and supervision matter in major European economies?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Ozili, Peterson K, 2021. "Financial reporting under economic policy uncertainty," MPRA Paper 105089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Aamir Aijaz Syed & Muhammad Abdul Kamal & Assad Ullah & Simon Grima, 2022. "An Asymmetric Analysis of the Influence That Economic Policy Uncertainty, Institutional Quality, and Corruption Level Have on India’s Digital Banking Services and Banking Stability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-21, March.
    16. Jamil, Abd Rahim Md. & Law, Siong Hook & Mohamad Khair-Afham, M.S. & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2023. "Financial inclusion and economic uncertainty in developing countries: The role of digitalisation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 786-806.
    17. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Hashmi, Shujahat Haider & Bakhsh, Satar, 2022. "Non-linear nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank lending," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 657-679.
    18. Hu, Debao & Lu, Jingming & Zhao, Sibo, 2024. "Does trade policy uncertainty increase commercial banks’ risk-taking? Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 532-551.
    19. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and bank stability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    20. Vu, Phuong Thi Thu & Huynh, Nhan & Phan, Hoa & Hoang, Hanh, 2023. "Financial earthquakes and aftershocks: From Brexit to Russia-Ukraine conflict and the stability of European banks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking system; Economic policy uncertainty; Individual risk; Systemic linkage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:59:y:2024:i:c:s1544612323011248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.