IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v47y2022ipbs1544612322000320.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Shifts in beta and the TARP announcement

Author

Listed:
  • Phin, Andrew
  • Prono, Todd
  • Reeves, Jonathan J.
  • Saxena, Konark

Abstract

Using high frequency return data, we propose a method for detecting level shifts in stock betas in the context of an event study. Using this method, we identify significant beta changes around the initial announcement of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Our findings have important implications for studies of TARP that assume betas remain unchanged following the program’s announcement. Pre-TARP betas are found to be poor measures of post-TARP systematic risk exposure. Holding these betas fixed at pre-TARP levels in the estimation of cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) risks distorting the magnitudes of these CARs by multiple orders.

Suggested Citation

  • Phin, Andrew & Prono, Todd & Reeves, Jonathan J. & Saxena, Konark, 2022. "Shifts in beta and the TARP announcement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:47:y:2022:i:pb:s1544612322000320
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.102704
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612322000320
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102704?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Econometric Analysis of Realized Covariation: High Frequency Based Covariance, Regression, and Correlation in Financial Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 885-925, May.
    2. Andrew J. Patton & Michela Verardo, 2012. "Does Beta Move with News? Firm-Specific Information Flows and Learning about Profitability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2789-2839.
    3. Ferson, Wayne E & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. "Tests of Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Expected Risk Premiums and Market Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 201-220, June.
    4. Biell, Lis & Muller, Aline, 2013. "Sudden crash or long torture: The timing of market reactions to operational loss events," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2628-2638.
    5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Jin Wu, 2005. "A Framework for Exploring the Macroeconomic Determinants of Systematic Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 398-404, May.
    6. Todorov, Viktor & Bollerslev, Tim, 2010. "Jumps and betas: A new framework for disentangling and estimating systematic risks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 220-235, August.
    7. Robichek, Alexander A & Cohn, Richard A, 1974. "The Economic Determinants of Systematic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 439-447, May.
    8. Hooper, Vincent J. & Ng, Kevin & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2008. "Quarterly beta forecasting: An evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 480-489.
    9. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan, 2006. "The conditional CAPM does not explain asset-pricing anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-314, November.
    10. Biell, Lis & Mouchette, Xavier & Muller, Aline, 2020. "When does the market feel it? Magnitude, speed and persistence of market reactions to cross-listings," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    11. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    12. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    13. Doan, Bao & Lee, John B. & Liu, Qianqiu & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2022. "Beta measurement with high frequency returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew Phin & Todd Prono & Jonathan J. Reeves & Konark Saxena, 2018. "Level Shifts in Beta, Spurious Abnormal Returns and the TARP Announcement," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-081, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Michela Verardo & Andrew Patton, 2009. "Does Beta Move with News? Systematic Risk and Firm-Specific Information Flows," FMG Discussion Papers dp630, Financial Markets Group.
    3. Tim Bollerslev & Sophia Zhengzi Li & Viktor Todorov, 2014. "Roughing up Beta: Continuous vs. Discontinuous Betas, and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," CREATES Research Papers 2014-48, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Fabian Hollstein & Marcel Prokopczuk & Chardin Wese Simen, 2020. "The Conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model Revisited: Evidence from High-Frequency Betas," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(6), pages 2474-2494, June.
    5. Ilze Kalnina, 2023. "Inference for Nonparametric High-Frequency Estimators with an Application to Time Variation in Betas," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 538-549, April.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Li, Sophia Zhengzi & Todorov, Viktor, 2016. "Roughing up beta: Continuous versus discontinuous betas and the cross section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 464-490.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Miguel Martin-Valmayor, 2020. "Persistence in the Realized Betas: Some Evidence for the Spanish Stock Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 8171, CESifo.
    8. Shabir A.A. Saleem & Peter N. Smith & Abdullah Yalaman, 2020. "Analysis of Systematic Risk around Firm-specific News in an Emerging Market using High Frequency Data," Discussion Papers 20/09, Department of Economics, University of York.
    9. Tolga Cenesizoglu & Denada Ibrushi, 2020. "Predicting Systematic Risk With Macroeconomic And Financial Variables," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 649-673, August.
    10. Tolga Cenesizoglu & Jonathan J. Reeves, 2013. "CAPM, Components of Beta and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-09, CIRANO.
    11. Chowdhury, Biplob & Jeyasreedharan, Nagaratnam & Dungey, Mardi, 2018. "Quantile relationships between standard, diffusion and jump betas across Japanese banks," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-47.
    12. Bilel Sanhaji & Julien Chevallier, 2023. "Tracking ‘Pure’ Systematic Risk with Realized Betas for Bitcoin and Ethereum," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-36, August.
    13. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "How to Estimate Beta?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-617, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    14. Doan, Bao & Lee, John B. & Liu, Qianqiu & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2022. "Beta measurement with high frequency returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    15. Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2018. "CAPM, components of beta and the cross section of expected returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 223-246.
    16. Cenesizoglu, Tolga & de Oliveira Ferrazoli Ribeiro, Fabio & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2017. "Beta forecasting at long horizons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 936-957.
    17. Mohammad Abu Sayeed & Mardi Dungey & Wenying Yao, 2018. "High-frequency Characterisation of Indian Banking Stocks," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2_suppl), pages 213-238, August.
    18. Boguth, Oliver & Carlson, Murray & Fisher, Adlai & Simutin, Mikhail, 2011. "Conditional risk and performance evaluation: Volatility timing, overconditioning, and new estimates of momentum alphas," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 363-389.
    19. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2019. "Estimating beta: Forecast adjustments and the impact of stock characteristics for a broad cross-section," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 91-118.
    20. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2020. "Beta uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Event study; Realized beta; Intra-day returns; Systematic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:47:y:2022:i:pb:s1544612322000320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.