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Consumption volatility ambiguity and risk premium’s time-variation

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  • Müller, Janis
  • Posch, Peter N.

Abstract

In a consumption based asset pricing model one can calculate the volatility of (log-)consumption growth from the expected market return and from the risk-free rate. We propose to use the difference between these estimates to measure ambiguity about consumption volatility. Using a long dataset we show this measure explains up to 69% of post-war variation in the market risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Müller, Janis & Posch, Peter N., 2019. "Consumption volatility ambiguity and risk premium’s time-variation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 336-339.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:29:y:2019:i:c:p:336-339
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2018.08.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
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    4. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    5. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    6. Jeong, Daehee & Kim, Hwagyun & Park, Joon Y., 2015. "Does ambiguity matter? Estimating asset pricing models with a multiple-priors recursive utility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 361-382.
    7. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Almut E. D. Veraart, 2012. "Stochastic Volatility of Volatility and Variance Risk Premia," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 1-46, December.
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    10. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2009. "Variance Risk Premiums," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1311-1341, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic volatility; Ambiguity; Time-varying equity premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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