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Firm-specific credit risk estimation in the presence of regimes and noisy prices

Author

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  • Bégin, Jean-François
  • Boudreault, Mathieu
  • Gauthier, Geneviève

Abstract

Security prices are important inputs for estimating credit risk. Yet, to obtain an accurate firm-specific credit risk assessment, one needs a reliable model and a methodology that filters the elements unrelated to the firm’s fundamentals from market prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bégin, Jean-François & Boudreault, Mathieu & Gauthier, Geneviève, 2017. "Firm-specific credit risk estimation in the presence of regimes and noisy prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 306-313.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:306-313
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2017.08.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2010. "Stock Options and Credit Default Swaps: A Joint Framework for Valuation and Estimation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 409-449, Fall.
    2. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    3. Gurdip Bakshi & Dilip Madan & Frank Xiaoling Zhang, 2006. "Investigating the Role of Systematic and Firm-Specific Factors in Default Risk: Lessons from Empirically Evaluating Credit Risk Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1955-1988, July.
    4. Guarin, Alexander & Liu, Xiaoquan & Ng, Wing Lon, 2014. "Recovering default risk from CDS spreads with a nonlinear filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-104.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    6. Chun, Olfa Maalaoui & Dionne, Georges & François, Pascal, 2014. "Detecting Regime Shifts in Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(5-6), pages 1339-1364, December.
    7. Hitesh Doshi & Jan Ericsson & Kris Jacobs & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2013. "Pricing Credit Default Swaps with Observable Covariates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 2049-2094.
    8. Huang, Shirley J. & Yu, Jun, 2010. "Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2259-2272, November.
    9. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads with the Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5099-5131, December.
    10. Huang, Alex YiHou & Hu, Wen-Cheng, 2012. "Regime switching dynamics in credit default swaps: Evidence from smooth transition autoregressive model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1497-1508.
    11. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Fulop, Andras, 2009. "Estimating the structural credit risk model when equity prices are contaminated by trading noises," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 288-296, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Sung Ik, 2023. "A comparative study of firm value models: Default risk of corporate bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Maximum likelihood estimation; Regime-switching; Filtering; Noisy prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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