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Pricing Credit Default Swaps with Observable Covariates

Author

Listed:
  • Hitesh Doshi
  • Jan Ericsson
  • Kris Jacobs
  • Stuart M. Turnbull

Abstract

Observable covariates are useful for predicting default, but several studies question their value for explaining credit spreads. We introduce a discrete-time no-arbitrage model with observable covariates, which allows for a closed-form solution for the value of credit default swaps (CDS). The default intensity is a quadratic function of the covariates, specified such that it is always positive. The model yields economically plausible results in terms of fit, the economic impact of the covariates, and the prices of risk. Risk premiums are large and account for a smaller percentage of spreads for firms with lower credit quality. Macroeconomic and firm-specific information can explain most of the variation in CDS spreads over time and across firms, even with a parsimonious specification. These findings resolve the existing disconnect in the literature regarding the value of observable covariates for credit risk pricing and default prediction. The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Hitesh Doshi & Jan Ericsson & Kris Jacobs & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2013. "Pricing Credit Default Swaps with Observable Covariates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 2049-2094.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:26:y:2013:i:8:p:2049-2094
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hht015
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bégin, Jean-François & Boudreault, Mathieu & Gauthier, Geneviève, 2017. "Firm-specific credit risk estimation in the presence of regimes and noisy prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 306-313.
    2. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    3. Gemmill, Gordon & Marra, Miriam, 2019. "Explaining CDS prices with Merton’s model before and after the Lehman default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 93-109.
    4. Realdon, Marco, 2024. "The efficiency of the Estr overnight index swap market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2015. "A Quadratic Kalman Filter," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 43-56.
    6. Carlos Caceres & Mr. Fabiano Rodrigues Rodrigues Bastos, 2016. "Understanding Corporate Vulnerabilities in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2016/080, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ka Kei Chan & Ming‐Tsung Lin & Qinye Lu, 2024. "Corporate credit default swap systematic factors," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(7), pages 1224-1256, July.
    8. Mitrodima, Gelly & Oberoi, Jaideep, 2024. "CAViaR models for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall with long range dependency features," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120880, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Weber, Matthias & Duffy, John & Schram, Arthur, 2024. "Regulation and the demand for credit default swaps in experimental bond markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    10. Iván M. Rodríguez & Krishnan Dandapani & Edward R. Lawrence, 2019. "Measuring Sovereign Risk: Are CDS Spreads Better than Sovereign Credit Ratings?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 229-256, March.
    11. Choi, Yong Seok & Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Turnbull, Stuart M., 2020. "Pricing structured products with economic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 754-773.
    12. Apergis, Nicholas & Danuletiu, Dan & Xu, Bing, 2022. "CDS spreads and COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    13. Murphy, Austin & Headley, Adrian, 2022. "An empirical evaluation of alternative fundamental models of credit spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    14. Jean‐François Bégin & Mathieu Boudreault & Mathieu Thériault, 2024. "Leveraging prices from credit and equity option markets for portfolio risk management," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 122-147, January.
    15. Dubecq, Simon & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2016. "Credit and liquidity in interbank rates: A quadratic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 29-46.
    16. Xiaoqing Fu & Matthew C. Li & Philip Molyneux, 2021. "Credit default swap spreads: market conditions, firm performance, and the impact of the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2203-2225, May.
    17. Nguyen, Ha, 2023. "An empirical application of Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo to frailty correlated default models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-121.
    18. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Xisong Jin & Hugues Langlois, 2018. "Dynamic Dependence and Diversification in Corporate Credit [Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 521-560.

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