IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v23y2017icp283-290.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic correlation of precious metals and flight-to-quality in developed markets

Author

Listed:
  • Klein, Tony

Abstract

A flexible modification of the DCC model that accounts for asymmetry and long memory in variance is proposed. This model is applied on precious metals and indexes of developed countries to revisit the flight-to-quality phenomenon. Market turmoil and shocks are covered by asset-specific variance models. I identify Gold and partly Silver as safe haven while this status seems to be dissipating in the recent years. Interestingly, Platinum shows signs of a surrogate safe haven. The practical difference between the standard DCC and the model proposed herein is significant, which stems from a more realistic variance modeling within the framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Klein, Tony, 2017. "Dynamic correlation of precious metals and flight-to-quality in developed markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 283-290.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:283-290
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2017.05.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612317301721
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2017.05.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chkili, Walid, 2016. "Dynamic correlations and hedging effectiveness between gold and stock markets: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 22-34.
    2. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    3. Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2017. "Fast fractional differencing in modeling long memory of conditional variance for high-frequency data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 274-279.
    4. Hammoudeh, Shawkat M. & Yuan, Yuan & McAleer, Michael & Thompson, Mark A., 2010. "Precious metals-exchange rate volatility transmissions and hedging strategies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 633-647, October.
    5. Dirk Baur & Duy Tran, 2014. "The long-run relationship of gold and silver and the influence of bubbles and financial crises," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1525-1541, December.
    6. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
    8. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    10. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2017. "Dynamic linkages between developed and BRICS stock markets: Portfolio risk analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 26-33.
    11. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yuan, Yuan, 2008. "Metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 606-620, March.
    12. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Long memory and structural breaks in modeling the return and volatility dynamics of precious metals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 207-218.
    13. Sensoy, Ahmet, 2013. "Dynamic relationship between precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 504-511.
    14. Massari, Stefania & Ruberti, Marcello, 2013. "Rare earth elements as critical raw materials: Focus on international markets and future strategies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 36-43.
    15. Hood, Matthew & Malik, Farooq, 2013. "Is gold the best hedge and a safe haven under changing stock market volatility?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 47-52.
    16. Chkili, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Volatility forecasting and risk management for commodity markets in the presence of asymmetry and long memory," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-18.
    17. Y. K. Tse, 1998. "The conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen-dollar exchange rate," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 49-55.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klein, Tony & Pham Thu, Hien & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Bitcoin is not the New Gold – A comparison of volatility, correlation, and portfolio performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 105-116.
    2. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Klein, Tony & Khalid, Ali, 2019. "The impact of oil price uncertainty on GCC stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Chkili, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Volatility forecasting and risk management for commodity markets in the presence of asymmetry and long memory," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-18.
    4. Dong, Xiyong & Li, Changhong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "How can investors build a better portfolio in small open economies? Evidence from Asia’s Four Little Dragons," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Walid Chkili, 2015. "Gold–oil prices co-movements and portfolio diversification implications," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2832-2845.
    6. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2015. "Downside/upside price spillovers between precious metals: A vine copula approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 84-102.
    7. Chkili, Walid, 2015. "Gold-oil prices co-movements and portfolio diversification implications," MPRA Paper 68110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Stavros Stavroyiannis, 2017. "A note on the Nelson Cao inequality constraints in the GJR-GARCH model: Is there a leverage effect?," Papers 1705.00535, arXiv.org.
    9. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "World gold prices and stock returns in China: Insights for hedging and diversification strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 273-282.
    10. Chkili, Walid, 2017. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven for Islamic stock market movements? A Markov switching approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 152-163.
    11. Troster, Victor & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2019. "A quantile regression analysis of flights-to-safety with implied volatilities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 482-495.
    12. Bosch, David & Pradkhan, Elina, 2015. "The impact of speculation on precious metals futures markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 118-134.
    13. Kirkulak-Uludag, Berna & Lkhamazhapov, Zorikto, 2016. "The volatility dynamics of spot and futures gold prices: Evidence from Russia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 474-484.
    14. Zhang, Heng-Guo & Su, Chi-Wei & Song, Yan & Qiu, Shuqi & Xiao, Ran & Su, Fei, 2017. "Calculating Value-at-Risk for high-dimensional time series using a nonlinear random mapping model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 355-367.
    15. Bentes, Sonia R., 2015. "Forecasting volatility in gold returns under the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH frameworks: New evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 355-364.
    16. Bentes, Sonia R., 2016. "Long memory volatility of gold price returns: How strong is the evidence from distinct economic cycles?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 443(C), pages 149-160.
    17. Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Mensi, Walid & Maitra, Debasish & Al-Jarrah, Idries Mohammad Wanas, 2019. "Portfolio management and dependencies among precious metal markets: Evidence from a Copula quantile-on-quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Bhatia, Vaneet & Das, Debojyoti & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hasim, Haslifah M., 2018. "Do precious metal spot prices influence each other? Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 244-252.
    19. Gaye Hatice Gencer & Zafer Musoglu, 2014. "Volatility Modeling and Forecasting of Istanbul Gold Exchange (IGE)," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 87-101, April.
    20. Demiralay, Sercan & Ulusoy, Veysel, 2014. "Value-at-risk Predictions of Precious Metals with Long Memory Volatility Models," MPRA Paper 53229, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic correlations; Precious metals; Stock markets; Asymmetry; Long memory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:283-290. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.