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Decomposing the persistence of international equity flows

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  • Froot, Kenneth A.
  • Donohue, Jessica Tjornhom

Abstract

The portfolio flows of institutional investors are widely known to be persistent. What is less well known, however, is the source of this persistence. One possibility is the ?informed trading hypothesis?: that persistence arises from autocorrelated trades of investors who believe they have information about value and who face an imperfectly liquid market. Another possibility is that there are asynchroneities with respect to investment decisions across funds, across investments, or both. These asynchroneities could be due to wealth effects (across investments for a single fund), investor herding (across funds for a single investment), or generalized contagion (across funds and across investments). We use daily data on institutional flows into 21 developed countries by 471 funds to measure and decompose aggregate flow persistence. We find that the informed trading hypothesis explains about 75% of total persistence, and that the remaining amount is attributable entirely to cross-fund own-country persistence. In other words, we find statistically and economically significant flow asynchroneities across funds investing in the same country. There are no meaningful asynchroneities across countries, either within a given fund, or across funds. The cross-fund flow lags we identify might result from different fund investment processes, or from some funds mimicking others? decisions. We reject the hypothesis that wealth effects explain persistence.
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  • Froot, Kenneth A. & Donohue, Jessica Tjornhom, 2004. "Decomposing the persistence of international equity flows," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 154-170, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:1:y:2004:i:3:p:154-170
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    1. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "South Africa: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/276, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach," International Finance 0405006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Michel Beine & Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Helene Raymond, 2008. "International nonlinear causality between stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 663-686.
    4. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Zbigniew Kominek, 2012. "Regulatory induced herding? Evidence from Polish pension funds," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 97-119, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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