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Risk-on/Risk-off: Financial market response to investor fear

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  • Smales, L.A.

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between changes in the level of investor fear (measured by VIX) and financial market returns. We document a statistically significant relationship, across asset classes, consistent with a flight to quality as investor fear increases. As VIX increase there is a decline in stock markets, bond yields, and high-yielding currencies (AUD and NZD), while the USD appreciates. Returns become more sensitive to changes in the level of investor fear during the financial crisis of 2008–09, when investor fear spikes sharply. Analysis of market returns subsequent to periods of extreme levels of investor fear suggests some predictive ability for future returns, and it is suggested that this may be used to develop a profitable trading strategy. Taken together, the results confirm that financial market returns are closely related to prevailing levels of investor fear.

Suggested Citation

  • Smales, L.A., 2016. "Risk-on/Risk-off: Financial market response to investor fear," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 125-134.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:17:y:2016:i:c:p:125-134
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2016.03.010
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sarwar, Ghulam, 2020. "Interrelations in market fears of U.S. and European equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Yizhan Shu & Chenyu Yu & John M. Mulvey, 2024. "Downside risk reduction using regime-switching signals: a statistical jump model approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(5), pages 493-507, September.
    3. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath & Madhuparna Kolay & Kambiz Raffiee, 2021. "Dynamic Responses of Standard and Poor’s Regional Bank Index to the U.S. Fear Index, VIX," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-18, March.
    4. Long, Wen & Zhao, Manyi & Tang, Yeran, 2021. "Can the Chinese volatility index reflect investor sentiment?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Examining the relationship between policy uncertainty and market uncertainty across the G7," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Ngoc Bao Vuong, Yoshihisa Suzuki, 2020. "Does Fear has Stronger Impact than Confidence on Stock Returns?The Case of Asia-Pacific Developed Markets," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67, pages 157-175, July.
    7. Mehmet F. Dicle, 2019. "Increasing return response to changes in risk," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 197-215, January.
    8. Ignatius Roni Setyawan & Buddi Wibowo, 2021. "Does Entropy Index Explain the Determinant of Capital Market Integration in ASEAN?," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 17-39.
    9. Lucian Liviu ALBU & Radu LUPU & Adrian Cantemir CĂLIN & Iulia LUPU, 2019. "Nonlinear Modeling of Financial Stability Using Default Probabilities from the Capital Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 19-37, March.
    10. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2020. "The linkages between oil market uncertainty and Islamic stock markets: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath & Joseph Macri & Kambiz Raffiee, 2019. "Dynamic Responses of Major Equity Markets to the US Fear Index," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-23, September.
    12. Yasmeen Idilbi-Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2022. "Tell Me Why I Do Not Like Mondays," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VIX; Investor fear; Financial markets; Financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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