IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v310y2024ics0360544224031013.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The dependence structures between geopolitical risks and energy prices: New evidence from regional heterogeneity and quantile-on-quantile perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Shuiyang
  • Kuang, Haibo
  • Bin Meng,

Abstract

We construct GPR indices for six major regions and select three categories of energy markets. Utilizing a quantile-on-quantile connectedness approach and impulse response analysis, we investigate the changing patterns of connectedness between these variables under different levels of GPRs and various energy market conditions. Furthermore, we explore the intensity, direction, and duration of GPRs impacts on energy markets. Our findings reveal that the total connectedness tends to be minimal at intermediate quantiles (50 %)—approximately 20%—increasing significantly toward both higher (95 %) and lower quantiles (5 %), with an enhancement of approximately 125 %–250 %. The maximum total connectedness between GPRs and Oil, Coal, and Gas is 87.2 %, 90.9 %, and 86.5 %, respectively. Connectedness during periods of extremely high GPRs percentile (95 %) is 30 % greater compared to low quantiles (5 %). The impact of GPRs on Oil typically lasts about 3–5 months, with a shorter duration of around 3 months for Gas and a longer duration of approximately 5 months for Coal, which can be prolonged by major events. Our conclusions underscore the importance for policymakers and traders to monitor the evolving patterns of connectedness between GPRs and energy markets under changing conditions, ensuring comprehensive risk awareness and robust trading decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Shuiyang & Kuang, Haibo & Bin Meng,, 2024. "The dependence structures between geopolitical risks and energy prices: New evidence from regional heterogeneity and quantile-on-quantile perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:310:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224031013
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.133325
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224031013
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.133325?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Li, Sufang & Tu, Dalun & Zeng, Yan & Gong, Chenggang & Yuan, Di, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter in crude oil and stock markets? Evidence from disaggregated data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Zhou, Bingjun & Huang, Yan & Gao, Ke & Luo, Chunyang, 2024. "How geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty impact coal, natural gas, and oil rent? Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Wang, Mei-Chih & Chang, Tsangyao & Mikhaylov, Alexey & Linyu, Jia, 2024. "A measure of quantile-on-quantile connectedness for the US treasury yield curve spread, the US Dollar, and gold price," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. He, Zhifang, 2023. "Geopolitical risks and investor sentiment: Causality and TVP-VAR analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Bin Meng & Shuiyang Chen & Hercules Haralambides & Haibo Kuang & Lidong Fan, 2023. "Information spillovers between carbon emissions trading prices and shipping markets: A time-frequency analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-04046290, HAL.
    7. Li, Songsong & Zhang, Weiqian & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "Dynamic time-frequency connectedness and risk spillover between geopolitical risks and natural resources," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Bashir, Muhammad Farhan & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Malik, Muhammad Nasir & Ma, Beiling & Wang, Jianming, 2023. "Energy transition, natural resource consumption and environmental degradation: The role of geopolitical risk in sustainable development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    9. Meng, Bin & Chen, Shuiyang & Haralambides, Hercules & Kuang, Haibo & Fan, Lidong, 2023. "Information spillovers between carbon emissions trading prices and shipping markets: A time-frequency analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & He, Zhifang, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on investor attention and speculation in the oil market: Evidence from nonlinear and time-varying analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    11. Zhang, Shaohe & Shinwari, Riazullah & Zhao, Shikuan & Dagestani, Abd Alwahed, 2023. "Energy transition, geopolitical risk, and natural resources extraction: A novel perspective of energy transition and resources extraction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Lau, Chi Keung & Soliman, Alaa M. & Albasu, Joseph & Gozgor, Giray, 2023. "Dependence structures among geopolitical risks, energy prices, and carbon emissions prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    14. Liu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical uncertainty on energy volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    15. Zhou, Mei-Jing & Huang, Jian-Bai & Chen, Jin-Yu, 2020. "The effects of geopolitical risks on the stock dynamics of China's rare metals: A TVP-VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    16. Naifar, Nader, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty and comparative reactions across sustainable sectors: Resilience or vulnerability?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    18. Ehsan Rasoulinezhad & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Jinsok Sung & Nisit Panthamit, 2020. "Geopolitical Risk and Energy Transition in Russia: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, March.
    19. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Sinha, Avik & Zaman, Umer & Shahzad, Umer, 2023. "Exploring the dynamic connectedness among energy transition and its drivers: Understanding the moderating role of global geopolitical risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    20. Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2024. "Quantile-on-quantile connectedness measures: Evidence from the US treasury yield curve," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    21. Bin Meng & Shuiyang Chen & Hercules Haralambides & Haibo Kuang & Lidong Fan, 2023. "Information spillovers between carbon emissions trading prices and shipping markets: A time-frequency analysis," Post-Print hal-04046290, HAL.
    22. Zhao, Jing, 2023. "Time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resources prices: Evidence from the hybrid TVP-VAR model with large system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    23. Liu, Fangying & Su, Chi Wei & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "Winner or loser? The bidirectional impact between geopolitical risk and energy transition from the renewable energy perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    24. Jin, Yi & Zhao, Hang & Bu, Lin & Zhang, Dayong, 2023. "Geopolitical risk, climate risk and energy markets: A dynamic spillover analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    25. Lorente, Daniel Balsalobre & Mohammed, Kamel Si & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier & Shahzad, Umer, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness among climate change index, green financial assets and renewable energy markets: Novel evidence from sustainable development perspective," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 94-105.
    26. Lin, Xudong & Meng, Yiqun & Zhu, Hao, 2024. "Exploring hedging potentials of green bonds against oil price shocks: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile connectedness measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    27. Abid, Ilyes & Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Kaabia, Olfa & Tarchella, Salma, 2023. "Geopolitical risk on energy, agriculture, livestock, precious and industrial metals: New insights from a Markov Switching model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    28. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Klein, Tony, 2021. "Oil price changes, uncertainty, and geopolitical risks: On the resilience of GCC countries to global tensions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    29. Qin, Yun & Hong, Kairong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhang, Zitao, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy returns and volatility under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    30. Gong, Xiao-Li & Feng, Yong-Kang & Liu, Jian-Min & Xiong, Xiong, 2023. "Study on international energy market and geopolitical risk contagion based on complex network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Jiahao & Zhang, Yifeng & Wei, Yu & Wang, Zhuo, 2024. "Normal and extreme impact and connectedness between fossil energy futures markets and uncertainties: Does El Niño-Southern Oscillation matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 188-215.
    2. Chen, Zhuoyi & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Hongwei, 2024. "Can geopolitical risks impact the long-run correlation between crude oil and clean energy markets? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    3. Hu, Zinan & Borjigin, Sumuya, 2024. "The amplifying role of geopolitical Risks, economic policy Uncertainty, and climate risks on Energy-Stock market volatility spillover across economic cycles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Dong, Xiyong & Zhang, John F., 2024. "Heterogeneity of regional carbon emission markets in China: Evidence from multidimensional determinants," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Evrim Mandaci, Pınar & Azimli, Asil & Mandaci, Nazif, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risks on connectedness among natural resource commodities: A quantile vector autoregressive approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    6. Li, Xiafei & Yang, Shuangpeng & Luo, Keyu & Liang, Chao, 2024. "Spillover relationships between international crude oil markets and global energy stock markets under the influence of geopolitical risks: New evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    7. Khurshid, Adnan & Khan, Khalid & Rauf, Abdur & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier, 2024. "Effect of geopolitical risk on resources prices in the global and Russian-Ukrainian context: A novel Bayesian structural model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Qin, Yun & Zhang, Zitao, 2024. "Transmission mechanisms of the effects of geopolitical risk on energy returns and volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    9. Gu, Qinen & Li, Shaofang & Tian, Sihua & Wang, Yuyouting, 2024. "Impact of climate risk on energy market risk spillover: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous network analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Aloui, Riadh & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Rezgui, Hichem & Ben Arfi, Wissal, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and commodity future returns: Fresh insights from dynamic copula conditional value-at-risk approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    11. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2024. "Unveiling interconnectedness: Exploring higher-order moments among energy, precious metals, industrial metals, and agricultural commodities in the context of geopolitical risks and systemic stress," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    12. Lei, Heng & Xue, Minggao & Ye, Jing, 2024. "The nexus between ReFi, carbon, fossil energy, and clean energy assets: Quantile time–frequency connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Khan, Nasir & Mejri, Sami & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "How do global commodities react to increasing geopolitical risks? New insights into the Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel conflicts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Halkos, George E. & Aslanidis, Panagiotis – Stavros C., 2023. "Sustainable energy development in an era of geopolitical multi-crisis. Applying productivity indices within institutional framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    15. Pan, Lijun & Wang, Yangjie & Sun, Xiaofei & Sadiq, Muhammad & Dagestani, Abd Alwahed, 2023. "Natural resources: A determining factor of geopolitical risk in Russia? Revisiting conflict-based perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    16. Szafranek, Karol & Rubaszek, Michał & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "The role of uncertainty and sentiment for intraday volatility connectedness between oil and financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    17. Zhou, Mei-Jing & Huang, Jian-Bai & Chen, Jin-Yu, 2022. "Time and frequency spillovers between political risk and the stock returns of China's rare earths," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    18. Chen, Xiuwen & Yao, Yinhong & Wang, Lin & Huang, Shenwei, 2024. "How EPU, VIX, and GPR interact with the dynamic connectedness among commodity and financial markets: Evidence from wavelet analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Xia, Xiqiang & Dogan, Eyup, 2024. "Understanding the effects of artificial intelligence on energy transition: The moderating role of Paris Agreement," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    20. He, Zhifang & Sun, Hao, 2024. "The time-varying and asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on geopolitical risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 942-957.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:310:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224031013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.