IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v62y2016i9p2504-2519.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cash-Flow News and the Investment Effect in the Cross Section of Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Mike Qinghao Mao

    (Department of Business Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, 3062 PA Rotterdam, Netherlands)

  • K. C. John Wei

    (Department of Finance, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong)

Abstract

This study provides novel evidence that cash-flow news quantitatively explains the investment effect in the cross section of stock returns. The negative return predictability of asset growth, investment growth, and accruals is evident only through the cash-flow news component of returns. The cash-flow news returns associated with investment-sorted portfolios exhibit a reversal from the preformation period to the postformation period. Such a return reversal is in line with reversals in firm fundamentals and becomes stronger for stocks with higher information uncertainty. Our findings are consistent with the expectational errors hypothesis and fail to support the risk-based explanation for the investment effect. This paper was accepted by Neng Wang, finance .

Suggested Citation

  • Mike Qinghao Mao & K. C. John Wei, 2016. "Cash-Flow News and the Investment Effect in the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(9), pages 2504-2519, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:62:y:2016:i:9:p:2504-2519
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2235
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2235
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2235?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    3. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    4. Sie Ting Lau & Lilian Ng & Bohui Zhang, 2012. "Information Environment and Equity Risk Premium Volatility Around the World," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(7), pages 1322-1340, July.
    5. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, February.
    6. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    7. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Tong, Qing, 2014. "Have capital market anomalies attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 41-58.
    8. repec:cup:jfinqa:v:46:y:2011:i:06:p:1651-1682_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ľuboš Pástor & Meenakshi Sinha & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2008. "Estimating the Intertemporal Risk–Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2859-2897, December.
    10. Luzi Hail & Christian Leuz, 2006. "International Differences in the Cost of Equity Capital: Do Legal Institutions and Securities Regulation Matter?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 485-531, June.
    11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    12. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2011. "Recent trends in trading activity and market quality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 243-263, August.
    13. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    14. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    15. Li, Dongmei & Zhang, Lu, 2010. "Does q-theory with investment frictions explain anomalies in the cross section of returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 297-314, November.
    16. Laura Xiaolei Liu & Toni M. Whited & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Investment-Based Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(6), pages 1105-1139, December.
    17. Givoly, Dan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1980. "Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings : Their value to investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 221-233, September.
    18. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    19. Titman, Sheridan & Wei, K. C. John & Xie, Feixue, 2004. "Capital Investments and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(4), pages 677-700, December.
    20. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1999. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1553-1607, October.
    21. Evgeny Lyandres & Le Sun & Lu Zhang, 2008. "The New Issues Puzzle: Testing the Investment-Based Explanation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2825-2855, November.
    22. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    23. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
    24. Lam, F.Y. Eric C. & Wei, K.C. John, 2011. "Limits-to-arbitrage, investment frictions, and the asset growth anomaly," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 127-149, October.
    25. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    26. Jin (Ginger) Wu & Lu Zhang & X. Frank Zhang, 2010. "The q‐Theory Approach to Understanding the Accrual Anomaly," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 177-223, March.
    27. Chen, Kevin C. W. & Chen, Zhihong & Wei, K. C. John, 2011. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow and the Effect of Shareholder Rights on the Implied Cost of Equity Capital," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 171-207, February.
    28. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    29. Michael J. Cooper & Huseyin Gulen & Michael J. Schill, 2008. "Asset Growth and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1609-1651, August.
    30. Chen, Kevin C.W. & Chen, Zhihong & Wei, K.C. John, 2009. "Legal protection of investors, corporate governance, and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 273-289, June.
    31. Long Chen & Xinlei Zhao, 2009. "Return Decomposition," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5213-5249, December.
    32. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2006. "Profitability, investment and average returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 491-518, December.
    33. Lipson, Marc L. & Mortal, Sandra & Schill, Michael J., 2011. "On the Scope and Drivers of the Asset Growth Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(6), pages 1651-1682, December.
    34. Yuhang Xing, 2008. "Interpreting the Value Effect Through the Q-Theory: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1767-1795, July.
    35. James Claus & Jacob Thomas, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    36. Christopher Polk & Paola Sapienza, 2009. "The Stock Market and Corporate Investment: A Test of Catering Theory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 187-217, January.
    37. William R. Gebhardt & Charles M. C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2001. "Toward an Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 135-176, June.
    38. Titman, Sheridan & John Wei, K. C. & Xie, Feixue, 2013. "Market Development and the Asset Growth Effect: International Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(5), pages 1405-1432, October.
    39. Long Chen & Zhi Da & Xinlei Zhao, 2013. "What Drives Stock Price Movements?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 841-876.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wikrom Prombutr & Chanwit Phengpis & Ying Zhang, 2023. "Anomalies in U.S. REIT Returns: Evidence for and against the Q-theory," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(1), pages 43-71.
    2. Hu Tian & Xiaolong Zheng & Kang Zhao & Maggie Wenjing Liu & Daniel Dajun Zeng, 2022. "Inductive Representation Learning on Dynamic Stock Co-Movement Graphs for Stock Predictions," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 1940-1957, July.
    3. Liu, Siqi & Yin, Chao & Zeng, Yeqin, 2021. "Abnormal investment and firm performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Yifan Chen & Jianhua Gang & Zongxin Qian & Jinfan Zhang, 2023. "Rationality test in the housing market: Project‐level evidence from China," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 583-616, June.
    5. Zhang, Bing, 2023. "Betting against low nominal prices: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 476-500.
    6. Lin, Yu En & Chu, Chien Chi & Omura, Akihiro & Li, Bin & Roca, Eduardo, 2020. "Arbitrage risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    7. Hsu, Yen-Ju & Wang, Yanzhi, 2023. "Technology spillover, corporate investment, and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 238-250.
    8. Chuan ‘Chewie’ Ang, Tze & Lam, F.Y. Eric C. & Ma, Tai & Wang, Shujing & Wei, K.C. John, 2019. "What is the real relationship between cash holdings and stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 513-528.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    2. Mao, Mike Qinghao & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "Price and earnings momentum: An explanation using return decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 332-351.
    3. Wu, Jin (Ginger) & Zhang, Lu, 2010. "Does Risk Explain Anomalies? Evidence from Expected Return Estimates," Working Paper Series 2010-18, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    4. Papanastasopoulos, Georgios & Thomakos, Dimitrios & Wang, Tao, 2011. "Information in balance sheets for future stock returns: Evidence from net operating assets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 269-282.
    5. Huang, Yuan & Lam, F.Y. Eric C. & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "The q-theory explanation for the external financing effect: New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 69-81.
    6. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
    7. Chuan ‘Chewie’ Ang, Tze & Lam, F.Y. Eric C. & Ma, Tai & Wang, Shujing & Wei, K.C. John, 2019. "What is the real relationship between cash holdings and stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 513-528.
    8. Chou, Pin-Huang & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2019. "Asset growth, style investing, and momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 108-124.
    9. Su, Xuan-Qi, 2016. "Does systematic distress risk drive the investment growth anomaly?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 240-248.
    10. Lipson, Marc L. & Mortal, Sandra & Schill, Michael J., 2011. "On the Scope and Drivers of the Asset Growth Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(6), pages 1651-1682, December.
    11. Cao, Viet Nga & Gray, Philip & Zhong, Angel, 2019. "Investment-related anomalies in Australia: Evidence and explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 97-109.
    12. Huang, Lin & Wang, Zijun, 2014. "Is the investment factor a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities? The US and international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 219-232.
    13. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 23394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Christian Walkshäusl & Sebastian Lobe, 2014. "The Alternative Three†Factor Model: An Alternative beyond US Markets?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(1), pages 33-70, January.
    15. Watanabe, Akiko & Xu, Yan & Yao, Tong & Yu, Tong, 2013. "The asset growth effect: Insights from international equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 529-563.
    16. Hou, Kewei & van Dijk, Mathijs A. & Zhang, Yinglei, 2012. "The implied cost of capital: A new approach," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 504-526.
    17. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    18. Xin Chen & Wei He & Libin Tao & Jianfeng Yu, 2023. "Attention and Underreaction-Related Anomalies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 636-659, January.
    19. Kewei Hou & Haitao Mo & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2019. "Which Factors?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-35.
    20. Mortal, Sandra C. & Schill, Michael J., 2018. "The role of firm investment in momentum and reversal," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 255-278.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:62:y:2016:i:9:p:2504-2519. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.