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Investor and (Value Line) Analyst Underreaction to Information about Future Earnings: The Corrective Role of Non‐Earnings‐Surprise Information

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  • Philip Shane
  • Peter Brous

Abstract

Prior research suggests that financial analysts’ earnings forecasts and stock prices underreact to earnings news. This paper provides evidence that analysts and investors correct this underreaction in response to the next earnings announcement and to other (non‐earnings‐surprise) information available between earnings announcements. Our evidence also suggests that analysts and investors underreact to information reflected in analysts’ earnings forecast revisions and that non‐earnings‐surprise information helps correct this underreaction as well. Controlling for corrective non‐earnings‐surprise information significantly increases estimates of the degree to which analysts’ forecasting behavior can explain drifts in returns following both earnings announcements and analysts’ earnings forecast revisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Shane & Peter Brous, 2001. "Investor and (Value Line) Analyst Underreaction to Information about Future Earnings: The Corrective Role of Non‐Earnings‐Surprise Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 387-404, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:39:y:2001:i:2:p:387-404
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.00018
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    Cited by:

    1. Partha S. Mohanram & Shyam V. Sunder, 2006. "How Has Regulation FD Affected the Operations of Financial Analysts?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 491-525, June.
    2. Jana Smith Raedy & Philip Shane & Yanhua Yang, 2006. "Horizon†Dependent Underreaction in Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(1), pages 291-322, March.
    3. Wei-Da Chen & Chin-Te Yu, 2022. "The information value of interim accounting disclosures: evidence from mandatory monthly revenue reports," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 245-295, January.
    4. repec:grz:wpsses:2020-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. David P. Weber, 2009. "Do Analysts and Investors Fully Appreciate the Implications of Book†Tax Differences for Future Earnings?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(4), pages 1175-1206, December.
    6. Ran Barniv & Mark Myring, 2006. "An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting‐Based Valuation Models," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7‐8), pages 1087-1109, September.
    7. Perotti, Pietro & Rindi, Barbara, 2010. "Market makers as information providers: The natural experiment of STAR," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 895-917, December.
    8. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    9. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2005. "Value Line and I/B/E/S earnings forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 185-198.
    10. Zolotoy, L., 2008. "Empirical essays on the information transfer between and the informational efficiency of stock markets," Other publications TiSEM 2a2652c6-1060-4622-8721-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    12. Chudek, Mark & Truong, Cameron & Veeraraghavan, Madhu, 2011. "Is trading on earnings surprises a profitable strategy? Canadian evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 832-850.
    13. Liu, Siqi & Yin, Chao & Zeng, Yeqin, 2021. "Abnormal investment and firm performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Po‐Chang Chen & Ganapathi S. Narayanamoorthy & Theodore Sougiannis & Hui Zhou, 2020. "Analyst underreaction and the post‐forecast revision drift," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(9-10), pages 1151-1181, October.
    15. Harald SCHMIDBAUER & Eren KALAYCIO?LU, 2008. "Crude Oil and Oil-Related Turkish Company Stocks: A Volatility Analysis," EcoMod2008 23800127, EcoMod.
    16. Truong, Cameron, 2010. "Post earnings announcement drift and the roles of drift-enhanced factors in New Zealand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 139-157, April.
    17. Irene Cherono & Tobias Olweny & Tabitha Nasieku, 2019. "Investor Behavior Biases and Stock Market Reaction in Kenya," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 1-6.
    18. Li, Wanyun, 2022. "Disclosure of internal control material weaknesses and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    19. Henk Berkman & Cameron Truong, 2009. "Event Day 0? After‐Hours Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 71-103, March.
    20. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    21. Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Torous, Walter & Yae, James, 2016. "Reading the tea leaves: Model uncertainty, robust forecasts, and the autocorrelation of analysts’ forecast errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 42-64.
    22. Martineau, Charles, 2021. "Rest in Peace Post-Earnings Announcement Drift," SocArXiv z7k3p, Center for Open Science.
    23. Jeffrey T. Doyle & Russell J. Lundholm & Mark T. Soliman, 2006. "The Extreme Future Stock Returns Following I/B/E/S Earnings Surprises," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 849-887, December.
    24. Philip L. Baird, 2020. "Do investors recognize biases in securities analysts’ forecasts?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 623-634, October.
    25. Friesen, Geoffrey & Weller, Paul A., 2006. "Quantifying cognitive biases in analyst earnings forecasts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 333-365, November.

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