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The turn of the month effect in India: A case of large institutional trading pattern as a source of higher liquidity

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  • Maher, Daniela
  • Parikh, Anokhi

Abstract

We examine (via parametric and non-parametric tests) the turn of the month effect in the returns of various, size-conditioned Indian stock indices, across time, in up and down markets and independent of other seasonal anomalies. We find little support for the payday and the US macroeconomic news announcements hypotheses. Instead, we show that institutional traders (foreign and domestic) significantly increase their trading volumes (on the buying side) at month end, potentially pushing prices up. There is no evidence of a similar behavior on the retail side. We suggest this to be a major cause of the observable TOM effect in India.

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  • Maher, Daniela & Parikh, Anokhi, 2013. "The turn of the month effect in India: A case of large institutional trading pattern as a source of higher liquidity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 57-69.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:28:y:2013:i:c:p:57-69
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2013.02.011
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    2. Peter Árendáš & Jana Kotlebová, 2023. "Agricultural commodity markets and the Turn of the month effect," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(3), pages 101-108.
    3. Priyanka Naik & Y. V. Reddy, 2021. "Stock Market Liquidity: A Literature Review," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(1), pages 21582440209, January.
    4. Khushboo Aggarwal & Mithilesh Kumar Jha, 2023. "Stock returns seasonality in emerging asian markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 109-130, March.
    5. Carlos Francisco Alves & Duarte André de Castro Reis, 2018. "Evidence of Idiosyncratic Seasonality in ETFs Performance," FEP Working Papers 603, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    6. Hassan, Aminu & Ibrahim, Masud Usman & Bala, Ahmed Jinjiri, 2024. "Vulnerability of a developing stock market to openness: One-way return and volatility transmissions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    7. Peter Arendas & Jana Kotlebova, 2019. "The Turn of the Month Effect on CEE Stock Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-19, October.
    8. Tariq Aziz & Valeed Ahmad Ansari, 2018. "The Turn of the Month Effect in Asia-Pacific Markets: New Evidence," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 214-226, February.
    9. Kayacetin, Volkan & Lekpek, Senad, 2016. "Turn-of-the-month effect: New evidence from an emerging stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 142-157.
    10. Lee, Yu Kyung & Kim, Ryumi, 2022. "The turn-of-the-month effect and trading of types of investors," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Gajdka, Jerzy & Kutan, Ali M., 2015. "Investor response to public news, sentiment and institutional trading in emerging markets: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 338-352.
    12. Liang Meng & Haifeng Wang & Pengfei Han, 2020. "Getting a head start: turn-of-the-month submission effect for accepted papers in management journals," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(3), pages 2577-2595, September.
    13. Muhammad Sarmad Irtiza & Shahbaz Khan & Nida Baig & Syed Muhammad Ali Tirmizi & Ilyas Ahmad, 2021. "The turn-of-the-month effect in Pakistani stock market," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Casalin, Fabrizio, 2018. "Determinants of holiday effects in mainland Chinese and Hong-Kong markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 45-67.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turn of the month; Institutional traders; Liquidity; Market efficiency; Returns;
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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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