IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v20y2011i3p127-133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are broad market shocks anticipated by investors? Evidence from major equity and index options markets

Author

Listed:
  • Spyrou, Spyros

Abstract

This paper examines trading activity in five index options markets before significant price shocks in the underlying asset (S&P100, FTSE100, CAC40, DAX30, and AEX). The results indicate abnormal call and put option trading volume before price shocks for a large number of cases, implying that market participants anticipate shocks and use the options market as the venue for their trading. This pattern is similar for all markets and persistent for three different pre-event periods (10, 20, and 30Â days), two different periods used to calculate the benchmark period trading volume (100 and 140Â days), and of whether open interest is used instead of trading volume. Further tests suggest that investors may use both long and short strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Spyrou, Spyros, 2011. "Are broad market shocks anticipated by investors? Evidence from major equity and index options markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 127-133, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:20:y:2011:i:3:p:127-133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105752191100010X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ball, Ray & Kothari, S. P., 1989. "Nonstationary expected returns : Implications for tests of market efficiency and serial correlation in returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 51-74, November.
    2. Charles Cao & Zhiwu Chen & John M. Griffin, 2005. "Informational Content of Option Volume Prior to Takeovers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 1073-1109, May.
    3. Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 871-908.
    4. G. Geoffrey Booth & Raymond W. So & Yiuman Tse, 1999. "Price discovery in the German equity index derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 619-643, September.
    5. Jayaraman, Narayanan & Frye, Melissa B & Sabherwal, Sanjiv, 2001. "Informed Testing around Merger Announcements: An Empirical Test Using Transaction Volume and Open Interest in Options Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 45-74, May.
    6. Kassimatis, Konstantinos & Spyrou, Spyros & Galariotis, Emilios, 2008. "Short-term patterns in government bond returns following market shocks: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 903-924, December.
    7. Bremer, Marc & Hiraki, Takato & Sweeney, Richard J., 1997. "Predictable Patterns after Large Stock Price Changes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 345-365, September.
    8. Arnold, Tom & Erwin, Gayle & Nail, Lance & Nixon, Terry, 2006. "Do option markets substitute for stock markets? Evidence from trading on anticipated tender offer announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 247-255.
    9. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    10. Lee, Jason & Yi, Cheong H., 2001. "Trade Size and Information-Motivated Trading in the Options and Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 485-501, December.
    11. Oliver Schnusenberg & Jeff Madura, 2001. "Do U.S. Stock Market Indexes Over- Or Underreact?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 179-204, June.
    12. Sanders, Ralph W. & Zdanowicz, John S., 1992. "Target Firm Abnormal Returns and Trading Volume around the Initiation of Change in Control Transactions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 109-129, March.
    13. Lasfer, M. Ameziane & Melnik, Arie & Thomas, Dylan C., 2003. "Short-term reaction of stock markets in stressful circumstances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1959-1977, October.
    14. Cox, Don R & Peterson, David R, 1994. "Stock Returns Following Large One-Day Declines: Evidence on Short-Term Reversals and Longer-Term Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 255-267, March.
    15. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1235-1258 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Brown, Keith C. & Harlow, W. V. & Tinic, Seha M., 1988. "Risk aversion, uncertain information, and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 355-385, December.
    17. Kaushik I. Amin & Charles M. C. Lee, 1997. "Option Trading, Price Discovery, and Earnings News Dissemination," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(2), pages 153-192, June.
    18. Chan, Wesley S., 2003. "Stock price reaction to news and no-news: drift and reversal after headlines," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 223-260, November.
    19. Patrick J. Dennis & Deon Strickland, 2002. "Who Blinks in Volatile Markets, Individuals or Institutions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1923-1949, October.
    20. Schachter, B, 1988. "Open Interest In Stock-Options Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 353-372.
    21. Georgina Benou & Nivine Richie, 2003. "The reversal of large stock price declines: The case of large firms," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 19-38, March.
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:2:p:431-465 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Bremer, Marc & Sweeney, Richard J, 1991. "The Reversal of Large Stock-Price Decreases," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 747-754, June.
    24. Chan, K C, 1988. "On the Contrarian Investment Strategy," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(2), pages 147-163, April.
    25. Mayhew, Stewart & Sarin, Atulya & Shastri, Kuldeep, 1995. "The Allocation of Informed Trading across Related Markets: An Analysis of the Impact of Changes in Equity-Option Margin Requirements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1635-1653, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dimitrios Asteriou & Keith Pilbeam & Antonios Sarantidis, 2019. "The Behaviour of Banking Stocks During the Financial Crisis and Recessions. Evidence from Changes‐in‐Changes Panel Data Estimations," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 154-179, February.
    2. Han‐Sheng Chen & Sanjiv Sabherwal, 2019. "Overconfidence among option traders," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 61-91, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mazouz, Khelifa & Joseph, Nathan L. & Joulmer, Joulmer, 2009. "Stock price reaction following large one-day price changes: UK evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1481-1493, August.
    2. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27, July-Dece.
    3. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2015, January-A.
    4. Amini, Shima & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "A review of the international literature on the short term predictability of stock prices conditional on large prior price changes: Microstructure, behavioral and risk related explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    5. Achim Himmelmann & Dirk Schiereck & Marc Simpson & Moritz Zschoche, 2012. "Long-term reactions to large stock price declines and increases in the European stock market: a note on market efficiency," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(2), pages 400-423, April.
    6. Foort, HAMELINK, 1998. "Systematic Patterns Before and After Large Price Changes: Evidence from High Frequency Data from the Paris Bourse," HEC Research Papers Series 655, HEC Paris.
    7. Ising, Jan & Schiereck, Dirk & Simpson, Marc W. & Thomas, Thomas W., 2006. "Stock returns following large 1-month declines and jumps: Evidence of overoptimism in the German market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 598-619, September.
    8. Kassimatis, Konstantinos & Spyrou, Spyros & Galariotis, Emilios, 2008. "Short-term patterns in government bond returns following market shocks: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 903-924, December.
    9. Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger & James Doran, 2011. "Do option open-interest changes foreshadow future equity returns?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 25(3), pages 265-280, September.
    10. Lasfer, M. Ameziane & Melnik, Arie & Thomas, Dylan C., 2003. "Short-term reaction of stock markets in stressful circumstances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1959-1977, October.
    11. Mazouz, Khelifa & Joseph, Nathan Lael & Palliere, Clement, 2009. "Stock index reaction to large price changes: Evidence from major Asian stock indexes," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 444-459, September.
    12. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2020. "Momentum effects in the cryptocurrency market after one-day abnormal returns," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(3), pages 251-266, September.
    13. Borgards, Oliver & Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "The prevalence of price overreactions in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Maher, Daniela & Parikh, Anokhi, 2011. "Short-term under/overreaction, anticipation or uncertainty avoidance? Evidence from India," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 560-584, October.
    15. Hudson, Robert S. & Gregoriou, Andros, 2015. "Calculating and comparing security returns is harder than you think: A comparison between logarithmic and simple returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 151-162.
    16. Boubaker, Sabri & Farag, Hisham & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Short-term overreaction to specific events: Evidence from an emerging market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 153-165.
    17. Ordu, Umut & Schweizer, Denis, 2015. "Executive compensation and informed trading in acquiring firms around merger announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 260-280.
    18. Vinicius Ratton Brandi, 2020. "Short-Term Predictability of Stock Market Indexes following Large Drawdowns and Drawups," Working Papers Series 529, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. Siougle, Georgia & Spyrou, Spyros I. & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2014. "Conference calls around merger and acquisition announcements: Do they reduce information asymmetry? UK Evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 148-172.
    20. Mark Schaub, 2006. "Investor overreaction to going concern audit opinion announcements," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(16), pages 1163-1170.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:20:y:2011:i:3:p:127-133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.