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Silver fetters? The rise and fall of the Chinese price level 1928–34

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  • Ho, Tai-kuang
  • Lai, Cheng-chung

Abstract

We show how the silver standard transmitted world silver price fluctuations into China and made the Chinese price level closely linked to the world silver price. Inflation was transmitted between 1929 and 1931 when the world silver price was falling; while deflation was transmitted during 1932 and 1934 when the world silver price was rising. Using micro-level evidence and counterfactual simulations, we show that the exchange rate was the main shock transmission channel, and silver stocks played an insignificant role.

Suggested Citation

  • Ho, Tai-kuang & Lai, Cheng-chung, 2013. "Silver fetters? The rise and fall of the Chinese price level 1928–34," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 446-462.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:50:y:2013:i:3:p:446-462
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2013.03.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jacks, David S. & Yan, Se & Zhao, Liuyan, 2017. "Silver points, silver flows, and the measure of Chinese financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 377-386.
    2. Ma, Debin & Zhao, Liuyan, 2019. "A Silver Transformation: Chinese Monetary Integration in Times of Political Disintegration during 1898-1933," CEPR Discussion Papers 13501, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. El-Shagi, Makram & Zhang, Lin, 2016. "Macroeconomic trade effects of vehicle currencies: Evidence from 19th century China," IWH Discussion Papers 23/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. El-Shagi, Makram, 2017. "Dealing with small sample bias in post-crisis samples," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-8.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Silver standard; Chinese economy; Structural VAR; Counterfactual response;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East

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