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Methodology for forecasting in the Swedish–Norwegian market for el-certificates

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  • Wolfgang, Ove
  • Jaehnert, Stefan
  • Mo, Birger

Abstract

In this paper we describe a novel methodology for forecasting in the Swedish–Norwegian el-certificate market, which is a variant of a tradable green certificate scheme. For the forecasting, the el-certificate market is integrated in the electricity-market model EMPS, which has weekly to hourly time-step length, whereas the planning horizon can be several years. Strategies for the certificate inventory are calculated by stochastic dynamic programming, whereas penalty-rates for non-compliance during the annual settlement of certificates are determined endogenously.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang, Ove & Jaehnert, Stefan & Mo, Birger, 2015. "Methodology for forecasting in the Swedish–Norwegian market for el-certificates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 322-333.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:88:y:2015:i:c:p:322-333
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.05.052
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    2. Helgesen, Per Ivar & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2018. "An equilibrium market power model for power markets and tradable green certificates, including Kirchhoff's Laws and Nash-Cournot competition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 270-288.

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