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Tradable green certificates for renewable support: The role of expectations and uncertainty

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  • Hustveit, Magne
  • Frogner, Jens Sveen
  • Fleten, Stein-Erik

Abstract

This paper analyzes tradable green certificate markets, where producers investing in new renewable capacity receive certificates based on their production. These are sold to electricity retailers, who are required to buy certificates in an amount proportional to their total sales. To assess the performance of such a scheme, we develop a stochastic model based on dynamic programming. Considering the case of the Swedish–Norwegian electricity certificate market, the main findings include: (i) price expectations are not formed easily, and hence, investment decisions must be made under considerable uncertainty; (ii) under the current market structure, prices are expected to start at today's level, while decreasing steadily towards zero when approaching the planned end of the market; (iii) the prices are highly sensitive to changes in electricity consumption and generation; (iv) regulatory changes should be implemented carefully to avoid increased uncertainty and a consequent increase in price volatility; and (v) the current policy of having a price-based penalty does not soften the two-state nature of this market. So far, the market has shown ample ability to promote cost-efficient investment in renewable electricity production.

Suggested Citation

  • Hustveit, Magne & Frogner, Jens Sveen & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2017. "Tradable green certificates for renewable support: The role of expectations and uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1717-1727.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:141:y:2017:i:c:p:1717-1727
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.11.013
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    15. Ying, Zhou & Xin-gang, Zhao & Zhen, Wang, 2020. "Demand side incentive under renewable portfolio standards: A system dynamics analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    16. Arvind Shrivats & Dena Firoozi & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2020. "A Mean-Field Game Approach to Equilibrium Pricing in Solar Renewable Energy Certificate Markets," Papers 2003.04938, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    17. Arvind Shrivats & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2019. "Optimal Behaviour in Solar Renewable Energy Certificate (SREC) Markets," Papers 1904.06337, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    18. Baamonde-Seoane, María A. & Carmen Calvo-Garrido, María del & Coulon, Michael & Vázquez, Carlos, 2021. "Numerical solution of a nonlinear PDE model for pricing Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs)," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 404(C).
    19. Arvind V. Shrivats & Dena Firoozi & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2022. "A mean‐field game approach to equilibrium pricing in solar renewable energy certificate markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 779-824, July.
    20. Dena Firoozi & Arvind V Shrivats & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2021. "Principal agent mean field games in REC markets," Papers 2112.11963, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    21. Irfan, Mohd, 2021. "Integration between electricity and renewable energy certificate (REC) markets: Factors influencing the solar and non-solar REC in India," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 65-74.
    22. Hu, Yu & Chi, Yuanying & Zhao, Hao & Zhou, Wenbing, 2022. "The development of renewable energy industry under renewable portfolio standards: From the perspective of provincial resource differences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    23. Damien Bazin & Nouri Chtourou & Amna Omri, 2019. "Risk management and policy implications for concentrating solar power technology investments in Tunisia," Post-Print hal-02061788, HAL.
    24. Yu, Xianyu & Ge, Shengxian & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Qunwei & Chang, Ching-Ter & Sang, Xiuzhi, 2022. "Whether feed-in tariff can be effectively replaced or not? An integrated analysis of renewable portfolio standards and green certificate trading," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).

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