IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v288y2024ics0360544223031936.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reconstituted data-driven air conditioning energy consumption prediction system employing occupant-orientated probability model as input and swarm intelligence optimization algorithms

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Chengyu
  • Ma, Liangdong
  • Han, Xing
  • Zhao, Tianyi

Abstract

With recent energy and environmental crises, the energy consumption prediction of air conditioning (AC) is essential. Notably, existing general prediction systems use the air temperature, real-time AC usage, time, occupancy, and AC historical energy consumption as inputs and employ feedforward neural networks. However, such systems face certain challenges. First, the input system may be difficult to reflect the real-time interaction among the building environment, occupants, and energy system; Second, the algorithms need to be upgraded to further improve accuracy, speed up convergence, and avoid overfitting. his paper introduces a novel parameter (group occupant behavior probability, GOBP) in the input system; and uses swarm intelligence algorithms with chaotic mapping and adaptive weight adjustment as optimization with LSTM and BP as the basic algorithms. The verification results obtained from five different buildings indicate the following: (1) The novel prediction system improved prediction performance with 20.08%–78.37 % of MAPE and 3.99%–53.28 % of CV-RMSE, however, it will increase 148.70s–1065.11s of calculation time. (2) For accuracy, using GOBP will improve the 0.30%–51.87 % and 0.18%–64.77 % by using swarm intelligence optimization algorithms. (3) This paper discusses the priority of selecting suitable inputs, algorithms, and optimization to combine a whole prediction system.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Chengyu & Ma, Liangdong & Han, Xing & Zhao, Tianyi, 2024. "Reconstituted data-driven air conditioning energy consumption prediction system employing occupant-orientated probability model as input and swarm intelligence optimization algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:288:y:2024:i:c:s0360544223031936
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.129799
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223031936
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.129799?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Goldsworthy, 2017. "Towards a Residential Air-Conditioner Usage Model for Australia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, August.
    2. Guo, Yabin & Wang, Jiangyu & Chen, Huanxin & Li, Guannan & Liu, Jiangyan & Xu, Chengliang & Huang, Ronggeng & Huang, Yao, 2018. "Machine learning-based thermal response time ahead energy demand prediction for building heating systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 16-27.
    3. Wang, Zhe & Hong, Tianzhen & Piette, Mary Ann, 2019. "Data fusion in predicting internal heat gains for office buildings through a deep learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 386-398.
    4. Duan, Mengfan & Sun, Hongli & Wu, Shuangdui & Wu, Yifan & Lin, Borong, 2023. "A simplified model for the evaluation and comparison of the dynamic performance of different heating terminal types," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PD).
    5. Zhang, Chu & Ji, Chunlei & Hua, Lei & Ma, Huixin & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad & Peng, Tian, 2022. "Evolutionary quantile regression gated recurrent unit network based on variational mode decomposition, improved whale optimization algorithm for probabilistic short-term wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 668-682.
    6. Li, Xinyue & Chen, Shuqin & Li, Hongliang & Lou, Yunxiao & Li, Jiahe, 2023. "A behavior-orientated prediction method for short-term energy consumption of air-conditioning systems in buildings blocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PD).
    7. Amasyali, Kadir & El-Gohary, Nora M., 2018. "A review of data-driven building energy consumption prediction studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1192-1205.
    8. W. Na & Z. C. Zhao, 2021. "The comprehensive evaluation method of low-carbon campus based on analytic hierarchy process and weights of entropy," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 9308-9319, June.
    9. Chaturvedi, Shobhit & Rajasekar, Elangovan & Natarajan, Sukumar & McCullen, Nick, 2022. "A comparative assessment of SARIMA, LSTM RNN and Fb Prophet models to forecast total and peak monthly energy demand for India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Chengyu & Luo, Zhiwen & Rezgui, Yacine & Zhao, Tianyi, 2024. "Enhancing building energy consumption prediction introducing novel occupant behavior models with sparrow search optimization and attention mechanisms: A case study for forty-five buildings in a univer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    2. Zhang, Chengyu & Rezgui, Yacine & Luo, Zhiwen & Jiang, Ben & Zhao, Tianyi, 2024. "Simultaneous community energy supply-demand optimization by microgrid operation scheduling optimization and occupant-oriented flexible energy-use regulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Zhe & Hong, Tianzhen & Piette, Mary Ann, 2020. "Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    2. Yuwen You & Zhonghua Wang & Zhihao Liu & Chunmei Guo & Bin Yang, 2024. "Load Prediction of Regional Heat Exchange Station Based on Fuzzy Clustering Based on Fourier Distance and Convolutional Neural Network–Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Zhang, Chengyu & Luo, Zhiwen & Rezgui, Yacine & Zhao, Tianyi, 2024. "Enhancing building energy consumption prediction introducing novel occupant behavior models with sparrow search optimization and attention mechanisms: A case study for forty-five buildings in a univer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    4. Wang, Wei & Hong, Tianzhen & Xu, Xiaodong & Chen, Jiayu & Liu, Ziang & Xu, Ning, 2019. "Forecasting district-scale energy dynamics through integrating building network and long short-term memory learning algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C), pages 217-230.
    5. Gautham Krishnadas & Aristides Kiprakis, 2020. "A Machine Learning Pipeline for Demand Response Capacity Scheduling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-25, April.
    6. Wang, Ran & Lu, Shilei & Feng, Wei, 2020. "A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    7. Thomas Wu & Bo Wang & Dongdong Zhang & Ziwei Zhao & Hongyu Zhu, 2023. "Benchmarking Evaluation of Building Energy Consumption Based on Data Mining," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Razak Olu-Ajayi & Hafiz Alaka & Hakeem Owolabi & Lukman Akanbi & Sikiru Ganiyu, 2023. "Data-Driven Tools for Building Energy Consumption Prediction: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    9. Ding, Zhikun & Chen, Weilin & Hu, Ting & Xu, Xiaoxiao, 2021. "Evolutionary double attention-based long short-term memory model for building energy prediction: Case study of a green building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    10. Fath U Min Ullah & Noman Khan & Tanveer Hussain & Mi Young Lee & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Diving Deep into Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: Comparative Analysis and a Novel Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-22, March.
    11. Altieri, Domenico & Patel, Martin K. & Lazarus, Joël & Branca, Giovanni, 2023. "Numerical analysis of low-cost optimization measures for improving energy efficiency in residential buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    12. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2019. "Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-27, August.
    13. Fan, Cheng & Sun, Yongjun & Xiao, Fu & Ma, Jie & Lee, Dasheng & Wang, Jiayuan & Tseng, Yen Chieh, 2020. "Statistical investigations of transfer learning-based methodology for short-term building energy predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    14. Muideen Adegoke & Alaka Hafiz & Saheed Ajayi & Razak Olu-Ajayi, 2022. "Application of Multilayer Extreme Learning Machine for Efficient Building Energy Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-21, December.
    15. Fan, Cheng & Xiao, Fu & Yan, Chengchu & Liu, Chengliang & Li, Zhengdao & Wang, Jiayuan, 2019. "A novel methodology to explain and evaluate data-driven building energy performance models based on interpretable machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1551-1560.
    16. Satre-Meloy, Aven, 2019. "Investigating structural and occupant drivers of annual residential electricity consumption using regularization in regression models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 148-168.
    17. Deb, Chirag & Dai, Zhonghao & Schlueter, Arno, 2021. "A machine learning-based framework for cost-optimal building retrofit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    18. Lei, Lei & Shao, Suola & Liang, Lixia, 2024. "An evolutionary deep learning model based on EWKM, random forest algorithm, SSA and BiLSTM for building energy consumption prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    19. Pan, Yue & Zhang, Limao, 2020. "Data-driven estimation of building energy consumption with multi-source heterogeneous data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    20. Panagiotis Michailidis & Iakovos Michailidis & Dimitrios Vamvakas & Elias Kosmatopoulos, 2023. "Model-Free HVAC Control in Buildings: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-45, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:288:y:2024:i:c:s0360544223031936. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.