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Support vector regression with asymmetric loss for optimal electric load forecasting

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  • Wu, Jinran
  • Wang, You-Gan
  • Tian, Yu-Chu
  • Burrage, Kevin
  • Cao, Taoyun

Abstract

In energy demand forecasting, the objective function is often symmetric, implying that over-prediction errors and under-prediction errors have the same consequences. In practice, these two types of errors generally incur very different costs. To accommodate this, we propose a machine learning algorithm with a cost-oriented asymmetric loss function in the training procedure. Specifically, we develop a new support vector regression incorporating a linear-linear cost function and the insensitivity parameter for sufficient fitting. The electric load data from the state of New South Wales in Australia is used to show the superiority of our proposed framework. Compared with the basic support vector regression, our new asymmetric support vector regression framework for multi-step load forecasting results in a daily economic cost reduction ranging from 42.19% to 57.39%, depending on the actual cost ratio of the two types of errors.

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  • Wu, Jinran & Wang, You-Gan & Tian, Yu-Chu & Burrage, Kevin & Cao, Taoyun, 2021. "Support vector regression with asymmetric loss for optimal electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:223:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221002188
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.119969
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Che & Li, Fan & Zhang, Chenghui & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Guanguan, 2023. "A day-ahead prediction method for high-resolution electricity consumption in residential units," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    2. Wang, Hu & Mao, Lei & Zhang, Heng & Wu, Qiang, 2024. "Multi-prediction of electric load and photovoltaic solar power in grid-connected photovoltaic system using state transition method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    3. Xiao, Xun & Mo, Huadong & Zhang, Yinan & Shan, Guangcun, 2022. "Meta-ANN – A dynamic artificial neural network refined by meta-learning for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    4. Yang, Wendong & Sun, Shaolong & Hao, Yan & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "A novel machine learning-based electricity price forecasting model based on optimal model selection strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    5. Xian Shan & Zheshuo Zhang & Xiaoying Li & Yu Xie & Jinyu You, 2023. "Robust Online Support Vector Regression with Truncated ε -Insensitive Pinball Loss," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, January.
    6. Huang, Yanmei & Hasan, Najmul & Deng, Changrui & Bao, Yukun, 2022. "Multivariate empirical mode decomposition based hybrid model for day-ahead peak load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    7. Laouafi, Abderrezak & Laouafi, Farida & Boukelia, Taqiy Eddine, 2022. "An adaptive hybrid ensemble with pattern similarity analysis and error correction for short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    8. Lu, Shixiang & Xu, Qifa & Jiang, Cuixia & Liu, Yezheng & Kusiak, Andrew, 2022. "Probabilistic load forecasting with a non-crossing sparse-group Lasso-quantile regression deep neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).

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