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Statistically enhanced model of oil sands operations: Well-to-wheel comparison of in situ oil sands pathways

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  • Guo, John
  • Orellana, Andrea
  • Sleep, Sylvia
  • Laurenzi, Ian J.
  • MacLean, Heather L.
  • Bergerson, Joule A.

Abstract

Although the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with Canadian oil sands have been investigated in recent years, questions remain regarding the source and impact of variability in emissions in this industry over time. This study combines publicly-available data from the fifteen largest operating in situ extraction projects, i.e., cyclic steam stimulation (CSS) and steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) with a statistically-enhanced life cycle model to investigate variability in well-to-wheel (WTW) GHG emissions. We estimate that the WTW GHG emissions from CSS-derived gasoline range from 99 to 114 g CO2eq/MJ (80% confidence interval), 6–22% higher than the RFS2 baseline. The corresponding range for SAGD-derived gasoline is 98–133 g CO2eq/MJ, 5–42% higher than the RFS2 baseline. SAGD-derived gasoline has more variability as some operators “upgrade” their crudes, emitting GHGs, whereas no CSS operator employs upgrading. Without upgrading, the 90th percentile for SAGD emissions would be 114 g CO2eq/MJ. Upstream variability in GHG emissions drives the positively skewed WTW GHG distributions. This demonstrates the importance of understanding the nature and magnitude of variability and uncertainty in decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, John & Orellana, Andrea & Sleep, Sylvia & Laurenzi, Ian J. & MacLean, Heather L. & Bergerson, Joule A., 2020. "Statistically enhanced model of oil sands operations: Well-to-wheel comparison of in situ oil sands pathways," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:208:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220313578
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118250
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nimana, Balwinder & Canter, Christina & Kumar, Amit, 2015. "Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in upgrading and refining of Canada's oil sands products," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 65-79.
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    4. Nimana, Balwinder & Canter, Christina & Kumar, Amit, 2015. "Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the recovery and extraction of crude bitumen from Canada’s oil sands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 189-199.
    5. Nimana, Balwinder & Canter, Christina & Kumar, Amit, 2015. "Life cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's oil sands-derived transportation fuels," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 544-554.
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