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Modeling uncertainties in advanced technologies: Application to a coal gasification system with hot-gas cleanup

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  • Frey, H.Christopher
  • Rubin, Edward S.
  • Diwekar, Urmila M.

Abstract

Uncertainties in the performance, emissions, and cost of advanced process technologies in early stages of development pose a challenge to process evaluation. Failure to account properly for uncertainties may result in misleading estimates that are then used for making decisions about technology selection and research planning. A new stochastic modeling capability has been developed for the ASPEN chemical process simulator that allows uncertainties in any process technology to be represented using probability distributions. This capability is briefly described. A detailed case study of an advanced integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC) system is presented to illustrate the application of this capability. The case study involves identification and characterization of uncertainties in model inputs, propagation of uncertainties through the model, and interpretation of model results. The value of stochastic modeling is in the ability to evaluate the simultaneous effect of multiple uncertainties in a process technology and to develop more realistic estimates of process performance and cost than would otherwise be obtained from deterministic (point-estimate) analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Frey, H.Christopher & Rubin, Edward S. & Diwekar, Urmila M., 1994. "Modeling uncertainties in advanced technologies: Application to a coal gasification system with hot-gas cleanup," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 449-463.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:19:y:1994:i:4:p:449-463
    DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(94)90123-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Chao & Rubin, Edward S., 2009. "CO2 control technology effects on IGCC plant performance and cost," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 915-924, March.
    2. Juzheng Zhang & Michel‐Alexandre Cardin & Nikolaos Kazantzis & Simon K. K. Ng & Y. H. Ma, 2015. "Economic Evaluation of Flexibility in the Design of IGCC Plants with Integrated Membrane Reactor Modules," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 208-227, March.
    3. Jaber, J. O. & Probert, S. D. & Williams, P. T., 1998. "Modelling oil-shale integrated tri-generator behaviour: predicted performance and financial assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(2-3), pages 73-95, February.
    4. Bright, Ryan M. & H. Strømman, Anders, 2010. "Incentivizing wood-based Fischer-Tropsch diesel through financial policy instruments: An economic assessment for Norway," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6849-6859, November.

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