IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v195y2020ics0360544220301481.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the impact of variable renewable energy on base-load cycling in the GB power system

Author

Listed:
  • de Mars, Patrick
  • O’Sullivan, Aidan
  • Keppo, Ilkka

Abstract

Between 2009 and 2017 the share of wind and solar energy sources in the GB electricity generation mix increased from 2.5% to 17%. Due to the variable nature of these renewable sources, large thermal power stations designed for constant base-load operation have been required to operate more flexibly to compensate for fluctuations in renewable generation. This flexible operation results in increased thermal stress and reduced efficiency causing increased operation, maintenance and fuel costs for these assets. In this paper we present the results of what is, to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical study on the impact of renewables generation on startups, ramping and part-loading (collectively, ‘cycling’) of base-load generators. We develop regression models using half-hourly generation data from 2009 to 2017 that capture the impact of increased renewable penetration while taking into account confounding factors including seasonality and demand. We find that with 2009-levels of renewable generation, cycling in 2017 would have been less severe, with 20% fewer startups. We also present estimates for cycling under National Grid Future Energy Scenarios to 2030 with implications for investment in generation assets. Additionally, the dataset derived in this research is made available and comprises the first open-access dataset on cycling.

Suggested Citation

  • de Mars, Patrick & O’Sullivan, Aidan & Keppo, Ilkka, 2020. "Estimating the impact of variable renewable energy on base-load cycling in the GB power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:195:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220301481
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.117041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220301481
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2020.117041?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huber, Matthias & Dimkova, Desislava & Hamacher, Thomas, 2014. "Integration of wind and solar power in Europe: Assessment of flexibility requirements," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 236-246.
    2. Turconi, R. & O’Dwyer, C. & Flynn, D. & Astrup, T., 2014. "Emissions from cycling of thermal power plants in electricity systems with high penetration of wind power: Life cycle assessment for Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 1-8.
    3. Eser, Patrick & Singh, Antriksh & Chokani, Ndaona & Abhari, Reza S., 2016. "Effect of increased renewables generation on operation of thermal power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 723-732.
    4. Steggals, Will & Gross, Robert & Heptonstall, Philip, 2011. "Winds of change: How high wind penetrations will affect investment incentives in the GB electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1389-1396, March.
    5. Mikkola, Jani & Lund, Peter D., 2016. "Modeling flexibility and optimal use of existing power plants with large-scale variable renewable power schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 364-375.
    6. Wolf-Peter Schill & Michael Pahle & Christian Gambardella, 2017. "Start-up costs of thermal power plants in markets with increasing shares of variable renewable generation," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 1-6, June.
    7. Bass, Robert J. & Malalasekera, Weeratunge & Willmot, Peter & Versteeg, Henk K., 2011. "The impact of variable demand upon the performance of a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1956-1965.
    8. Troy, Niamh & Denny, Eleanor & O'Malley, Mark, 2010. "Base-load cycling on a system with significant wind penetration," MPRA Paper 34848, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Simmini & Marco Agostini & Massimiliano Coppo & Tommaso Caldognetto & Andrea Cervi & Fabio Lain & Ruggero Carli & Roberto Turri & Paolo Tenti, 2020. "Leveraging Demand Flexibility by Exploiting Prosumer Response to Price Signals in Microgrids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Joseph Nyangon & John Byrne, 2023. "Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), January.
    3. Dhruv Suri & Jacques de Chalendar & Ines Azevedo, 2024. "What are the real implications for $CO_2$ as generation from renewables increases?," Papers 2408.05209, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Devlin, Joseph & Li, Kang & Higgins, Paraic & Foley, Aoife, 2017. "Gas generation and wind power: A review of unlikely allies in the United Kingdom and Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 757-768.
    2. Saleh Abujarad & Mohd Wazir Mustafa & Jasrul Jamani Jamian & Abdirahman M. Abdilahi & Jeroen D. M. De Kooning & Jan Desmet & Lieven Vandevelde, 2020. "An Adjusted Weight Metric to Quantify Flexibility Available in Conventional Generators for Low Carbon Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Cany, C. & Mansilla, C. & Mathonnière, G. & da Costa, P., 2018. "Nuclear contribution to the penetration of variable renewable energy sources in a French decarbonised power mix," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 544-555.
    4. Eser, Patrick & Singh, Antriksh & Chokani, Ndaona & Abhari, Reza S., 2016. "Effect of increased renewables generation on operation of thermal power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 723-732.
    5. Neshumayev, Dmitri & Rummel, Leo & Konist, Alar & Ots, Arvo & Parve, Teet, 2018. "Power plant fuel consumption rate during load cycling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 124-135.
    6. Arjuna Nebel & Christine Krüger & Tomke Janßen & Mathieu Saurat & Sebastian Kiefer & Karin Arnold, 2020. "Comparison of the Effects of Industrial Demand Side Management and Other Flexibilities on the Performance of the Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Mararakanye, Ndamulelo & Bekker, Bernard, 2019. "Renewable energy integration impacts within the context of generator type, penetration level and grid characteristics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 441-451.
    8. Yin, Guangzhi & Duan, Maosheng, 2022. "Pricing the deep peak regulation service of coal-fired power plants to promote renewable energy integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    9. Teirilä, Juha, 2020. "The value of the nuclear power plant fleet in the German power market under the expansion of fluctuating renewables," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Di Cosmo, Valeria & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2014. "The incentive to invest in thermal plants in the presence of wind generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 306-315.
    11. McPherson, Madeleine & Tahseen, Samiha, 2018. "Deploying storage assets to facilitate variable renewable energy integration: The impacts of grid flexibility, renewable penetration, and market structure," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 856-870.
    12. Ye, Liang-Cheng & Lin, Hai Xiang & Tukker, Arnold, 2019. "Future scenarios of variable renewable energies and flexibility requirements for thermal power plants in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 708-714.
    13. Yue Liu & Lixin Tian & Zhuyun Xie & Zaili Zhen & Huaping Sun, 2021. "Option to survive or surrender: carbon asset management and optimization in thermal power enterprises from China," Papers 2104.04729, arXiv.org.
    14. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    15. Guerra, K. & Haro, P. & Gutiérrez, R.E. & Gómez-Barea, A., 2022. "Facing the high share of variable renewable energy in the power system: Flexibility and stability requirements," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    16. Wiese, Frauke & Schlecht, Ingmar & Bunke, Wolf-Dieter & Gerbaulet, Clemens & Hirth, Lion & Jahn, Martin & Kunz, Friedrich & Lorenz, Casimir & Mühlenpfordt, Jonathan & Reimann, Juliane & Schill, Wolf-P, 2019. "Open Power System Data – Frictionless data for electricity system modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 401-409.
    17. Akpan, P.U. & Fuls, W.F., 2021. "Cycling of coal fired power plants: A generic CO2 emissions factor model for predicting CO2 emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    18. Wagner, Lukas Peter & Reinpold, Lasse Matthias & Kilthau, Maximilian & Fay, Alexander, 2023. "A systematic review of modeling approaches for flexible energy resources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    19. McPherson, Madeleine & Karney, Bryan, 2017. "A scenario based approach to designing electricity grids with high variable renewable energy penetrations in Ontario, Canada: Development and application of the SILVER model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 185-196.
    20. Heggarty, Thomas & Bourmaud, Jean-Yves & Girard, Robin & Kariniotakis, Georges, 2024. "Assessing the relative impacts of maximum investment rate and temporal detail in capacity expansion models applied to power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:195:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220301481. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.