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A stochastic modelling and simulation approach to heating and cooling electricity consumption in the residential sector

Author

Listed:
  • Palacios-Garcia, E.J.
  • Moreno-Munoz, A.
  • Santiago, I.
  • Flores-Arias, J.M.
  • Bellido-Outeirino, F.J.
  • Moreno-Garcia, I.M.

Abstract

Heating and cooling consumption is one of the most significant terms in the total supply, which may come to represent half of the total demand in European countries. These appliances are supplied by a wide range of sources, being electrical devices of special interest in the Smart Grid. Current tools allow the assessment of the consumption with a high accuracy, nevertheless, they lack the temporal resolution or low-level details to study advanced control techniques. In this context, bottom-up stochastic models are a main tool to simulate high-resolution demand profiles. This paper presents a 1-min resolution model for electricity demand of heating and cooling appliances. The system is based on the simulation of individual households considering variables such as the number of residents, location, type of day (weekday or weekend) and date. It was used to simulate daily profiles which showed two main demand peaks, one during mornings and another during dinner time, for heating, and a high demand during midday for cooling consumption. Moreover, annual simulations depicted the importance of cooling appliances, which despite having a lower annual demand, can overcharge the grid with their concurrent utilisation, highlighting the usefulness of this tool for studying the impact of these devices.

Suggested Citation

  • Palacios-Garcia, E.J. & Moreno-Munoz, A. & Santiago, I. & Flores-Arias, J.M. & Bellido-Outeirino, F.J. & Moreno-Garcia, I.M., 2018. "A stochastic modelling and simulation approach to heating and cooling electricity consumption in the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 1080-1091.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:144:y:2018:i:c:p:1080-1091
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.12.082
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    5. Moral-Carcedo, Julián & Pérez-García, Julián, 2019. "Time of day effects of temperature and daylight on short term electricity load," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 169-183.
    6. Hwang, Haejin & Kim, Sunghoon & García, Álvaro González & Kim, Jiyong, 2021. "Global sensitivity analysis for assessing the economic feasibility of renewable energy systems for an off-grid electrified city," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    7. Castillo, Victhalia Zapata & Boer, Harmen-Sytze de & Muñoz, Raúl Maícas & Gernaat, David E.H.J. & Benders, René & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2022. "Future global electricity demand load curves," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    8. Pablo Baez-Gonzalez & Felix Garcia-Torres & Miguel A. Ridao & Carlos Bordons, 2020. "A Stochastic MPC Based Energy Management System for Simultaneous Participation in Continuous and Discrete Prosumer-to-Prosumer Energy Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-23, July.
    9. Santiago, I. & Moreno-Munoz, A. & Quintero-Jiménez, P. & Garcia-Torres, F. & Gonzalez-Redondo, M.J., 2021. "Electricity demand during pandemic times: The case of the COVID-19 in Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    10. Hu, Wenxuan & Scholz, Yvonne & Yeligeti, Madhura & Deng, Ying & Jochem, Patrick, 2024. "Future electricity demand for Europe: Unraveling the dynamics of the Temperature Response Function," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).

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