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The 21st century population-energy-climate nexus

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  • Jones, Glenn A.
  • Warner, Kevin J.

Abstract

World population is projected to reach 10.9 billion by 2100, yet nearly one-fifth of the world's current 7.2 billion live without access to electricity. Though universal energy access is desirable, a significant reduction in fossil fuel usage is required before mid-century if global warming is to be limited to <2°C. Here we quantify the changes in the global energy mix necessary to address population and climate change under two energy-use scenarios, finding that renewable energy production (9% in 2014) must comprise 87–94% of global energy consumption by 2100. Our study suggests >50% renewable energy needs to occur by 2028 in a <2°C warming scenario, but not until 2054 in an unconstrained energy use scenario. Given the required rate and magnitude of this transition to renewable energy, it is unlikely that the <2°C goal can be met. Focus should be placed on expanding renewable energy as quickly as possible in order to limit warming to 2.5–3°C.

Suggested Citation

  • Jones, Glenn A. & Warner, Kevin J., 2016. "The 21st century population-energy-climate nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 206-212.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:93:y:2016:i:c:p:206-212
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.02.044
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    Cited by:

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    4. Wu, X.F. & Chen, G.Q., 2017. "Global primary energy use associated with production, consumption and international trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 85-94.
    5. John W. Day & Christopher F. D’Elia & Adrian R. H. Wiegman & Jeffrey S. Rutherford & Charles A. S. Hall & Robert R. Lane & David E. Dismukes, 2018. "The Energy Pillars of Society: Perverse Interactions of Human Resource Use, the Economy, and Environmental Degradation," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-16, March.
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    8. Daniel Balsalobre-Lorente & Nuno Carlos Leitão & Festus Victor Bekun, 2021. "Fresh Validation of the Low Carbon Development Hypothesis under the EKC Scheme in Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, January.
    9. Yi Yuan & Yingjie Li & Jianli Zhao, 2018. "Development on Thermochemical Energy Storage Based on CaO-Based Materials: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-24, July.
    10. Sarah M. Jordaan & Junghun Lee & Maureen R. McClung & Matthew D. Moran, 2021. "Quantifying the ecosystem services values of electricity generation in the US Chihuahuan Desert: A life cycle perspective," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(4), pages 1089-1101, August.
    11. Aamir Javed & Agnese Rapposelli & Mohsin Shah & Asif Javed, 2023. "Nexus between Energy Consumption, Foreign Direct Investment, Oil Prices, Economic Growth, and Carbon Emissions in Italy: Fresh Evidence from Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Wavelet Coherence Approa," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-23, August.
    12. Youxue Jiang & Zakia Batool & Syed Muhammad Faraz Raza & Mohammad Haseeb & Sajjad Ali & Syed Zain Ul Abidin, 2022. "Analyzing the Asymmetric Effect of Renewable Energy Consumption on Environment in STIRPAT-Kaya-EKC Framework: A NARDL Approach for China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-15, June.
    13. Pang, Zhihong & Chen, Yan & Zhang, Jian & O'Neill, Zheng & Cheng, Hwakong & Dong, Bing, 2021. "How much HVAC energy could be saved from the occupant-centric smart home thermostat: A nationwide simulation study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    14. Zhang, Shuai & Yang, Dewei & Ji, Yijia & Meng, Haishan & Zhou, Tian & Zhang, Junmei & Yang, Hang, 2024. "Spatio-temporal patterns and cascading risks of embodied energy flows in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    15. Kevin J. Warner & Glenn A. Jones, 2017. "The Climate-Independent Need for Renewable Energy in the 21st Century," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-13, August.
    16. Cuong, Dinh Viet & Matsagar, Babasaheb M. & Lee, Mengshan & Hossain, Md. Shahriar A. & Yamauchi, Yusuke & Vithanage, Meththika & Sarkar, Binoy & Ok, Yong Sik & Wu, Kevin C.-W. & Hou, Chia-Hung, 2021. "A critical review on biochar-based engineered hierarchical porous carbon for capacitive charge storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    17. Djedaiet, Aissa & Ayad, Hicham & Ben-Salha, Ousama, 2024. "Oil prices and the load capacity factor in African oil-producing OPEC members: Modeling the symmetric and asymmetric effects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    18. Xuezhen Guo & Juliën Voogt & Bert Annevelink & Joost Snels & Argyris Kanellopoulos, 2020. "Optimizing Resource Utilization in Biomass Supply Chains by Creating Integrated Biomass Logistics Centers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-16, November.
    19. Jaweriya Naz & Dr. Mirza Faizan Ahmed & Prof. Dr. Raza Ali Khan, 2024. "Pakistan Energy Outlook for Next 25 Years," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(2), pages 563-572.
    20. Poggi, Francesca & Amado, Miguel, 2024. "The spatial dimension of energy consumption in cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    21. Warner, Kevin J. & Jones, Glenn A., 2017. "A population-induced renewable energy timeline in nine world regions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 65-76.

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