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Long-term scenario analysis of nuclear energy and variable renewables in Japan's power generation mix considering flexible power resources

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  • Komiyama, Ryoichi
  • Fujii, Yasumasa

Abstract

This paper comprehensively analyzes an optimal deployment of variable renewables (VRs) with flexible power resources, such as electricity saving and rechargeable battery, in Japan's long-term power generation mix to 2050 under possible nuclear energy scenarios. The study is performed, employing a dynamic high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model which is formulated as a large-scale linear programming model. Simulation results show that both complete nuclear phase-out and carbon reduction by 80% in 2050 from 2010 encourage VR expansion in the country's power system and cause a quadruple increase of power generation cost at 2050 compared with that under current nuclear capacity and no carbon regulation policy; long-term cost reduction of VR energy system is necessary if VR is positioned as a mainstream for future sustainable power supply. Secondly, higher levels of VR integration decrease the capacity factor of LNG combined cycle (LNGCC), which implies the challenge to assure LNGCC serving as a remunerated ramp generator for VR intermittency. Finally, as an economically optimal solution, electricity saving serves as an important option to integrate massive VR and to treat a seasonal imbalance of its power output in an efficient way.

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  • Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2015. "Long-term scenario analysis of nuclear energy and variable renewables in Japan's power generation mix considering flexible power resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 169-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:83:y:2015:i:c:p:169-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.04.005
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    3. Shinichi Taniguchi, 2020. "Examining the causality structures of electricity interchange and variable renewable energy: a comparison between Japan and Denmark," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 159-191, February.
    4. Krakowski, Vincent & Assoumou, Edi & Mazauric, Vincent & Maïzi, Nadia, 2016. "Feasible path toward 40–100% renewable energy shares for power supply in France by 2050: A prospective analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 501-522.
    5. Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2017. "Assessment of post-Fukushima renewable energy policy in Japan's nation-wide power grid," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 594-611.
    6. Gyanwali, Khem & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2020. "Representing hydropower in the dynamic power sector model and assessing clean energy deployment in the power generation mix of Nepal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    7. Zimmermann, Florian & Keles, Dogan, 2022. "State or market: Investments in new nuclear power plants in France and their domestic and cross-border effects," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 64, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    8. Yanxue Li & Weijun Gao & Yingjun Ruan & Yoshiaki Ushifusa, 2018. "Grid Load Shifting and Performance Assessments of Residential Efficient Energy Technologies, a Case Study in Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, June.
    9. Tang, Bao-Jun & Li, Ru & Li, Xiao-Yi & Chen, Hao, 2017. "An optimal production planning model of coal-fired power industry in China: Considering the process of closing down inefficient units and developing CCS technologies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 519-530.
    10. Matsuo, Yuhji & Endo, Seiya & Nagatomi, Yu & Shibata, Yoshiaki & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2020. "Investigating the economics of the power sector under high penetration of variable renewable energies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    11. Krakowski, Vincent & Assoumou, Edi & Mazauric, Vincent & Maïzi, Nadia, 2016. "Reprint of Feasible path toward 40–100% renewable energy shares for power supply in France by 2050: A prospective analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1529-1550.
    12. Li, Yanxue & Gao, Weijun & Ruan, Yingjun & Ushifusa, Yoshiaki, 2018. "The performance investigation of increasing share of photovoltaic generation in the public grid with pump hydro storage dispatch system, a case study in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 811-821.
    13. Sugiyama, Masahiro & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Wada, Kenichi & Oshiro, Ken & Kato, Etsushi & Kurosawa, Atsushi & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Silva Herran, Diego & Matsuo, Yuhji & Shiraki, Hiroto & Sakamoto, Shog, 2020. "EMF 35 JMIP study: preliminary results and implications for Japan’s climate change mitigation," Conference papers 333235, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Li, Yanxue & Gao, Weijun & Ruan, Yingjun, 2018. "Performance investigation of grid-connected residential PV-battery system focusing on enhancing self-consumption and peak shaving in Kyushu, Japan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 514-523.
    15. Misagh Irandoostshahrestani & Daniel R. Rousse, 2022. "Photovoltaic Electrification and Water Pumping Using the Concepts of Water Shortage Probability and Loss of Power Supply Probability: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-23, December.
    16. Matsuo, Yuhji & Endo, Seiya & Nagatomi, Yu & Shibata, Yoshiaki & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2018. "A quantitative analysis of Japan's optimal power generation mix in 2050 and the role of CO2-free hydrogen," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1200-1219.

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