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Long-term scenario analysis of nuclear energy and variable renewables in Japan's power generation mix considering flexible power resources

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  • Komiyama, Ryoichi
  • Fujii, Yasumasa

Abstract

This paper comprehensively analyzes an optimal deployment of variable renewables (VRs) with flexible power resources, such as electricity saving and rechargeable battery, in Japan's long-term power generation mix to 2050 under possible nuclear energy scenarios. The study is performed, employing a dynamic high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model which is formulated as a large-scale linear programming model. Simulation results show that both complete nuclear phase-out and carbon reduction by 80% in 2050 from 2010 encourage VR expansion in the country's power system and cause a quadruple increase of power generation cost at 2050 compared with that under current nuclear capacity and no carbon regulation policy; long-term cost reduction of VR energy system is necessary if VR is positioned as a mainstream for future sustainable power supply. Secondly, higher levels of VR integration decrease the capacity factor of LNG combined cycle (LNGCC), which implies the challenge to assure LNGCC serving as a remunerated ramp generator for VR intermittency. Finally, as an economically optimal solution, electricity saving serves as an important option to integrate massive VR and to treat a seasonal imbalance of its power output in an efficient way.

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  • Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2015. "Long-term scenario analysis of nuclear energy and variable renewables in Japan's power generation mix considering flexible power resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 169-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:83:y:2015:i:c:p:169-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.04.005
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    3. Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2017. "Assessment of post-Fukushima renewable energy policy in Japan's nation-wide power grid," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 594-611.
    4. Misagh Irandoostshahrestani & Daniel R. Rousse, 2022. "Photovoltaic Electrification and Water Pumping Using the Concepts of Water Shortage Probability and Loss of Power Supply Probability: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-23, December.
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    6. Li, Yanxue & Gao, Weijun & Ruan, Yingjun & Ushifusa, Yoshiaki, 2018. "The performance investigation of increasing share of photovoltaic generation in the public grid with pump hydro storage dispatch system, a case study in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 811-821.
    7. Gyanwali, Khem & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2020. "Representing hydropower in the dynamic power sector model and assessing clean energy deployment in the power generation mix of Nepal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
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    9. Matsuo, Yuhji & Endo, Seiya & Nagatomi, Yu & Shibata, Yoshiaki & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2018. "A quantitative analysis of Japan's optimal power generation mix in 2050 and the role of CO2-free hydrogen," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1200-1219.
    10. Zimmermann, Florian & Keles, Dogan, 2022. "State or market: Investments in new nuclear power plants in France and their domestic and cross-border effects," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 64, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    11. Shinichi Taniguchi, 2020. "Examining the causality structures of electricity interchange and variable renewable energy: a comparison between Japan and Denmark," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 159-191, February.
    12. Krakowski, Vincent & Assoumou, Edi & Mazauric, Vincent & Maïzi, Nadia, 2016. "Feasible path toward 40–100% renewable energy shares for power supply in France by 2050: A prospective analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 501-522.
    13. Yanxue Li & Weijun Gao & Yingjun Ruan & Yoshiaki Ushifusa, 2018. "Grid Load Shifting and Performance Assessments of Residential Efficient Energy Technologies, a Case Study in Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, June.
    14. Tang, Bao-Jun & Li, Ru & Li, Xiao-Yi & Chen, Hao, 2017. "An optimal production planning model of coal-fired power industry in China: Considering the process of closing down inefficient units and developing CCS technologies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 519-530.
    15. Matsuo, Yuhji & Endo, Seiya & Nagatomi, Yu & Shibata, Yoshiaki & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2020. "Investigating the economics of the power sector under high penetration of variable renewable energies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    16. Li, Yanxue & Gao, Weijun & Ruan, Yingjun, 2018. "Performance investigation of grid-connected residential PV-battery system focusing on enhancing self-consumption and peak shaving in Kyushu, Japan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 514-523.

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